Compared with last season...

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It really doesnt't bother me who we have to play. Yes they will be tough games, but how many sides in league one on current form are better than ourselves right now?
 

Ollessendro said:
Peterborough's current projected points tally is 72. However their form has been indifferent since Christmas and their chairman making comments on Twitter does not bode well. Will they capitulate? Who knows. I would be surprised if they did better than their season average so far and picked up more than 20 points in the last 13 games. Interestingly, if Poish were to fook things up then it becomes a free for all, as Swidon and Walsall (7th and 8th) are only 3 points in front of us.

If Peterbough do get 72 points, then (with them having a better GD ... though that could change) we would need to pick up 29 points from the last 13 games. 2.23 points per game. Seems a very difficult feat considering we've still got all the top 5 to play.
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Unfortunately Posh's next two games are against Crewe and Bristol City. That should give their form a bit of a boost. By the time we play Carlisle we could be 12 points behind (Albeit with two game in hand). On the other hand if, they get no points from those two games, then well, things could get very interesting indeed :)
 
grafikhaus said:
OK. Based on the last ten seasons in Division One, the average for 6th place is 74 points. Highest was 09/10 Huddersfield with 80 points. Lowest 10/11, 05/06 and 04/05 was 71 points.
So the line has been moved to 74 points (what we got last season) and seems a decent, and relevant, target.

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Interestingly (or not) last season saw now as the point of our customary fade-out with only a further three wins...
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In 05/06, the team finishing in 6th (Swansea) had 58 points at the end of feb. If Posh have that sort of form until the end of the season then we could make it. Nurse! :)
 
Very much 'after the Lord Mayor's Show' tonight. Didn't really click, too many players running on empty, flat/non-existent atmosphere BUT if we can win in games like that, we ain't doing bad! Just read the last few posts on here - we're 'coming up on the rails'!

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Ollessendro said:
Comparing the equivalent games from last season: Another 3 points last night means we gain more points on last season*. 3 yesterday vs 1.33 for last season gives us 1.77 extra points for the equivalent games puts us 9.48 points down on last season. Comparing the equivalent games since Clough has been in charge he has now got more points than Wilson did in those games. Clough is +2.11 up on Wilson.

* lost to Yeovil at home, beat Bornnemouth and drew against Doncaster = 4/3 = 1.33
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As we failed to beat Carlisle (0-0) at home last season then we are now 7.48 points down in the equivalent games, after effectively gaining 2 points. Clough has now achieved 4 more points than Wilson in the equivalent matches (+4.11).
 
Don't know if it's worth continuing with this? (Only did it because, until very recently, we hadn't scored in the last ten minutes). Still showing signs of a late fade-out, though.

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SellyOakBlade said:
It's completely unrealistic.

Which is why, asI have said elsewhere, we need to win our next 5 games (well 4 games after last night). That would presumably put us somewhere around 5 points away from the playoffs, with 9 games left.

And then we will need a monumental push to put pressure on the top 6.

Very unlikely to happen, which is why we should take each game as it comes and see wher we are with 6 games left.
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You know SO I keep telling myself it's unrealistic. A few weeks ago I had a heated debate with my 27 year old son (who I still see as a kid) about us reaching the play-offs when some numpty mentioned it on the phone-in on the way home from the match. I even accused him of being as deluded as a Wendy fan with talk of play-offs after winning a couple of games.
But look where we are now, and he keeps reminding me!
I have a dream ........
 
grafikhaus said:
Don't know if it's worth continuing with this? (Only did it because, until very recently, we hadn't scored in the last ten minutes). Still showing signs of a late fade-out, though.

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It's interesting, but when we are not conceding it does not really matter. The last 10 games we've only conceded 1, so it is not matter when we have scored (just that we did). We've had four 1-0 wins in there in which we've scored and then robustly defended.

Clough has us defending brilliantly as a unit. Plus our pace and counter attacking style means we can punish teams (once we got in front and) when they attack us. If anything, on current form, it is better if we score early as then we can defend and hit on the break.
 
Ollessendro said:
It's interesting, but when we are not conceding it does not really matter. The last 10 games we've only conceded 1, so it is not matter when we have scored (just that we did). We've had four 1-0 wins in there in which we've scored and then robustly defended.

Clough has us defending brilliantly as a unit. Plus our pace and counter attacking style means we can punish teams (once we got in front and) when they attack us. If anything, on current form, it is better if we score early as then we can defend and hit on the break.
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The thing I find exciting is that if we score first, teams don't know how to take us because we sit back a little then when we get the ball our speed takes us up the pitch on attack (the break) but if we lose it up there we don't drop off fast we press and sometimes win it back and go for the jugular.The game on sunday being a perfect example. Most lower teams would try to hold that 1-0. We just went at them after sitting back for a minute then wham number 2 and they were still frightened of us. We seem comfortable playing on the defence though. It must make the other team on edge with the way we play.
I think what I'm saying is that it is not just counter attacking it is the desire to win the ball in all areas of the pitch.
 
boo radley said:
The thing I find exciting is that if we score first, teams don't know how to take us because we sit back a little then when we get the ball our speed takes us up the pitch on attack (the break) but if we lose it up there we don't drop off fast we press and sometimes win it back and go for the jugular.The game on sunday being a perfect example. Most lower teams would try to hold that 1-0. We just went at them after sitting back for a minute then wham number 2 and they were still frightened of us. We seem comfortable playing on the defence though. It must make the other team on edge with the way we play.
I think what I'm saying is that it is not just counter attacking it is the desire to win the ball in all areas of the pitch.
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Not sure I am with you there Boo - our style is to get into shape as quickly as possible when we lose the ball and not to chase it individually. We quickly get back in our own half and make it very difficult for the opposition to break us down. If we do press, then Nigel wants us to press as a group not as individuals. Once the opposition gets into our half we press as a group and the biggest thing for me is that we do not allow the opposition the space to get a cross in if at all possible (something we were dreadful at when Weir was in charge).

Although the first goal on Sunday was due to us venturing upfield and was predominantly down to a fantastic, visionary, ball from Baxter and some proper anticipation / gambling and execution by Flynn the second goal on Sunday was actually a counterattack. Charlton were looking to get straight back into the game and committed bodies forward but Brayford broke up the play on the edge of our box when he noticed a poor pass and in one swift movement set Murph on his way with a great pacy run, squeezing through the challenge of two defenders - who did their best to bring him down but he rode the tackles superbly, then he cut inside and played it into the path of Brayford (who had continued his forward momentum to join in with the breakaway) and that was that.

We press when we need to and as a group - no so much all over the field but in areas where we can counter swiftly if we break up the oppositions attack
 
Kenilworth said:
Not sure I am with you there Boo - our style is to get into shape as quickly as possible when we lose the ball and not to chase it individually. We quickly get back in our own half and make it very difficult for the opposition to break us down. If we do press, then Nigel wants us to press as a group not as individuals. Once the opposition gets into our half we press as a group and the biggest thing for me is that we do not allow the opposition the space to get a cross in if at all possible (something we were dreadful at when Weir was in charge).

Although the first goal on Sunday was due to us venturing upfield and was predominantly down to a fantastic, visionary, ball from Baxter and some proper anticipation / gambling and execution by Flynn the second goal on Sunday was actually a counterattack. Charlton were looking to get straight back into the game and committed bodies forward but Brayford broke up the play on the edge of our box when he noticed a poor pass and in one swift movement set Murph on his way with a great pacy run, squeezing through the challenge of two defenders - who did their best to bring him down but he rode the tackles superbly, then he cut inside and played it into the path of Brayford (who had continued his forward momentum to join in with the breakaway) and that was that.

We press when we need to and as a group - no so much all over the field but in areas where we can counter swiftly if we break up the oppositions attack
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Not dissimilar to what I said that. You may have put things slightly better than me but to be honest I think we'll all agree it is exciting.
 
Kenilworth said:
Not sure I am with you there Boo - our style is to get into shape as quickly as possible when we lose the ball and not to chase it individually. We quickly get back in our own half and make it very difficult for the opposition to break us down. If we do press, then Nigel wants us to press as a group not as individuals. Once the opposition gets into our half we press as a group and the biggest thing for me is that we do not allow the opposition the space to get a cross in if at all possible (something we were dreadful at when Weir was in charge).

Although the first goal on Sunday was due to us venturing upfield and was predominantly down to a fantastic, visionary, ball from Baxter and some proper anticipation / gambling and execution by Flynn the second goal on Sunday was actually a counterattack. Charlton were looking to get straight back into the game and committed bodies forward but Brayford broke up the play on the edge of our box when he noticed a poor pass and in one swift movement set Murph on his way with a great pacy run, squeezing through the challenge of two defenders - who did their best to bring him down but he rode the tackles superbly, then he cut inside and played it into the path of Brayford (who had continued his forward momentum to join in with the breakaway) and that was that.

We press when we need to and as a group - no so much all over the field but in areas where we can counter swiftly if we break up the oppositions attack
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Not dissimilar to what I said that. You may have put things slightly better than me but to be honest I think we'll all agree it is exciting.
 

Well, we were never going to win every game, but a very creditable draw. And ten clean sheets out of the last eleven games. Phenominal!

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Ollessendro said:
As we failed to beat Carlisle (0-0) at home last season then we are now 7.48 points down in the equivalent games, after effectively gaining 2 points. Clough has now achieved 4 more points than Wilson in the equivalent matches (+4.11).
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as we won away at Preston last season then we drop 2 points and return to -9.48 points down on last season. That puts Clough +2.11 up on Wilson over the equivalent games.
 
Bit of a wake up call that. I thought Wolves were superior all over the park. Niggly bastards, though. They know that if the ref. hands out as many yellow cards as were justified (about 9 for Wolves today) he would probably be 'marked down', and also gives them the chance to get all eleven back.

However, definite signs that ws're developing and moving in the right direction but wasteful with our chances (and we did have some good openings). Have to see Wolves' first again, but my initial reaction was that it was an 'undefendable' ball into our danger zone.

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grafikhaus said:
Bit of a wake up call that. I thought Wolves were superior all over the park. Niggly bastards, though. They know that if the ref. hands out as many yellow cards as were justified (about 9 for Wolves today) he would probably be 'marked down', and also gives them the chance to get all eleven back.

However, definite signs that ws're developing and moving in the right direction but wasteful with our chances (and we did have some good openings). Have to see Wolves' first again, but my initial reaction was that it was an 'undefendable' ball into our danger zone.

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Whoever finishes in the top two with Wolves needs to say a big thank you to a certain David Weir
 
What about a graph against Peterborough (... and MK)? Rather than crossing an arbitrary line of 75 points we would need to cross the Peterborough line instead.
 
Ollessendro said:
as we won away at Preston last season then we drop 2 points and return to -9.48 points down on last season. That puts Clough +2.11 up on Wilson over the equivalent games.
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Losing at home to Wolves means we drop 1.33* points on last season. This puts us on -10.81 compared to last season and Clough is +0.78 on Wilson. We won at Crawley last season, so this Tuesday's victory maintains the status quo.

The games coming up are:
- Swindon away (D) = 1
- Brentford home (D) = 1
- Orient home (D) = 1
- Rotherham (**) = 1.75
- Stevenage (W) = 3
- Tranmere away (W) = 3
- Port Vale away (***) = 1.75
- Oldham away (W) = 3
- Coventry home (L) = 0

This is interesting as if we pick up 7-8 points extra on last season then it could see us ovetake Posh (presuming they finish on 70 points, which is their current projection). The question is whether we can do significantly better in these games.

* drew with Donny at home, beat Bournemouth and lost to Yeovil = 4/3 = 1.33
** drew at BDTBL vs Bury, beat Scunny, lost to Hartlepool and beat Pompey = 7/4 = 1.75
*** won at Bury, drew at Scunny, won at Hartlepool and lost at Pompey = 7/4 = 1.75
 
BladeInBC said:
What about a graph against Peterborough (... and MK)? Rather than crossing an arbitrary line of 75 points we would need to cross the Peterborough line instead.
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Nowt better to do in Canada? :) Just for you...

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Points on left (Y axis), number of games on bottom (X axis).

Actually interesting, this. After winning their first four, they've gone on a couple of Weir-esque slumps - games 13 to 18 incl., 21 to 25 incl. and three losses out of the last 4.

By Game 11, they were 18 points clear of us, but then we began the slooow march back. What happened after Game 11? Oh, Weir was sacked. Morgs. started the revival on Game 13 with a creditable draw at - Peterborough - but Posh kept winning.

By game 14 Sir Nigel took over with us a massive 23 points behind them. But then...sensing a genius was on board at the Blades...(drum roll)... Posh realised the game was up and started to slip...

Next episode in this thrilling drama? About 17.00 tomorrow! (GMT!)

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