ucandomagic
Active Member
Another 3 great points against some pretty solid, stubborn Bluebirds. 4-1 sounds comfortable but, if Davies’s first-half save and Wickham’s second-half shot hitting the crossbar had gone the other way, the outcome could easily have been very different. Doyle and McAtee were both superb, and JLT and Iliman were probably the pick of our own guys. I loved McA’s dummy shot before he stroked the ball home, and JLT’s diving header from Tommy’s delicious cross took me back to John Flynn’s diving header, also against Cardiff, back on April 27th 1971 (my first game at the Lane)! Billy again forced a world-class save from the keeper with a curler towards the top corner– a repeat of his effort against Wigan.
The day could have had a perfect ending if the Millers had ground something out of Eric’s Hatters, but you can’t have everything.
So what does the overall situation look like?
Graph 1 is the multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 41 games, on 79 points we are 1 point ahead of our 78 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19 and exactly the same as Warnock’s 79 points from 41 games in 05/06. So this continues to match our best Championship season, after 41 games, for over 20 years.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that on 79 points we are now exactly the same as my Autos Certain line. This line is for results to achieve 90 points and almost certain automatics – but on a few points below this line we still have a very high probability of getting automatics this season. In fact 86 will certainly be enough now and, as I’ve suggested in my run-in table below, 84 will probably be enough.
Graph 2:
Next, the League Table, and an unchanged 5 point gap over the Mad Hatters and 8 points over Boro, with a game in hand on both. Our better goal difference than Luton may still be important.
League Table:
Finally, my Run-In Table. Those of you who have read my earlier threads will recall that I assume an absolute maximum credible 2.5 points per game (ppg) in the run-in for our nearest rivals, and then calculate what we would need to do to match the best of them.
The Run-In Table below shows that the Mad Hatters have a projected credible maximum of 84. With our superior goal difference we should beat that with 84 ourselves, another 5 points, If Luton were to win all of their last 4 games their total, and our target, would be 86. So, our required points per game is now somewhere between 1 and 1.4.
Run-In Table:
Before today’s game, I got my Grandson’s Wembley ticket upgraded to Adult for my Son, bought a ’92 Retro shirt for him to wear at Wembley and enjoyed the Jaipur in Sheaf Island – so all round it was a very good day.
One City beaten – Two more to go in the next 7 days!
UTB & Slava Ukraini
The day could have had a perfect ending if the Millers had ground something out of Eric’s Hatters, but you can’t have everything.
So what does the overall situation look like?
Graph 1 is the multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 41 games, on 79 points we are 1 point ahead of our 78 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19 and exactly the same as Warnock’s 79 points from 41 games in 05/06. So this continues to match our best Championship season, after 41 games, for over 20 years.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that on 79 points we are now exactly the same as my Autos Certain line. This line is for results to achieve 90 points and almost certain automatics – but on a few points below this line we still have a very high probability of getting automatics this season. In fact 86 will certainly be enough now and, as I’ve suggested in my run-in table below, 84 will probably be enough.
Graph 2:
Next, the League Table, and an unchanged 5 point gap over the Mad Hatters and 8 points over Boro, with a game in hand on both. Our better goal difference than Luton may still be important.
League Table:
Finally, my Run-In Table. Those of you who have read my earlier threads will recall that I assume an absolute maximum credible 2.5 points per game (ppg) in the run-in for our nearest rivals, and then calculate what we would need to do to match the best of them.
The Run-In Table below shows that the Mad Hatters have a projected credible maximum of 84. With our superior goal difference we should beat that with 84 ourselves, another 5 points, If Luton were to win all of their last 4 games their total, and our target, would be 86. So, our required points per game is now somewhere between 1 and 1.4.
Run-In Table:
Before today’s game, I got my Grandson’s Wembley ticket upgraded to Adult for my Son, bought a ’92 Retro shirt for him to wear at Wembley and enjoyed the Jaipur in Sheaf Island – so all round it was a very good day.
One City beaten – Two more to go in the next 7 days!
UTB & Slava Ukraini
