Flat Track Bullies?

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ucandomagic

ucandomagic

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Not a graph today, but a visualization that maybe tells a thousand words.

Like everybody else, I've got excited about the way that we're now playing on the front foot, and you've probably noticed that I've started posting graphs to convince myself that we're going to make the top 6.

However, when you look at the league table with some colours added, the close proximity of almost all of the green suddenly leaps out - we've got 22 points from 24 against the bottom third and 7 points from 39 against the top two thirds.

So, I'm reserving judgement on how far we've progressed until after the next two games against QPR and Fulham. 3 points or more from those two, and I will allow myself to start believing!


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Agree, so far, but you have to be more difficult to beat to effect games against opposition higher up. Now, I feel we can compete (we won’t win them all, obvs) whereas, before, we were soft as shit and had little or no chance.
Cardiff a case in point- that would have been a game we would have lost under Slav - like WBA - we are shit at defending against an aerial threat and long throws, still but we looked threatening all game.
 
We beat teams down the bottom and struggle against teams at the top. In other words we're a middle of the road side, who are in the middle of the league.
As has been mentioned elsewhere, the rest of the league is weak enough that add a couple of 'unexpected wins' in, and we may make the play offs. I suspect we're just a mid-table side. Let's just hope we don't lose MGW, or I fear we're then a lower mid-table side.
 
Never understood what people mean by “flat track bully” in relation to football when “average” or “above average” will do.
 
CrookesBlade said:
Never understood what people mean by “flat track bully” in relation to football when “average” or “above average” will do.
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The phrase is from cricket - ie somebody who only dominates the bowling on an easy “flat” wicket.

In football it means that you only perform impressively against poor opposition.
 
If you look at our record in our last promotion season, I think you'll find that our record against the bottom 14 clubs was excellent and by far the best. At the end of the season it doesn't matter where the points come from. Opposite applied in our promotion from Division 3 under Dave Bassett. As I recall we had a terrible record against the 4 relegated clubs.
 
Sandygate Blade said:
If you look at our record in our last promotion season, I think you'll find that our record against the bottom 14 clubs was excellent and by far the best. At the end of the season it doesn't matter where the points come from. Opposite applied in our promotion from Division 3 under Dave Bassett. As I recall we had a terrible record against the 4 relegated clubs.
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Lost 6/8 Chesterfield and Southend did double aldershot n gills also beat us.
 
A fair assessment of where things stand. As you say it will take a few more games to know how our season will progress. The players seem to have responded to Hecky. But on the other side we have 3 concerns.
1. A lack of athleticism and physicality in CM.
2. We are still defensively frail with a serious weakness in the air.
3.Being more clinical up front. Looking at our games this season and having been to some other championship teams, the likes of Bournemouth can be out played for significant portions of the game but can still get enough goals to get a result. We don't have a Brereton Diaz or a Mitrovic who score regularly. Didsy as we know links up well but is a poor finisher. Billy can finish but isn't mobile enough. Brewster while improving is still a long way off. In particular his running and movement to create space for himself or others is below what is required. McBurnie isn't prolific or effective either. And as Norwood and Hourihane rarely score that leaves just MGW to contribute.
Hence our position and our 0 goal difference.
So I expect a finish just out side the play offs.
 
ucandomagic said:
Not a graph today, but a visualization that maybe tells a thousand words.

Like everybody else, I've got excited about the way that we're now playing on the front foot, and you've probably noticed that I've started posting graphs to convince myself that we're going to make the top 6.

However, when you look at the league table with some colours added, the close proximity of almost all of the green suddenly leaps out - we've got 22 points from 24 against the bottom third and 7 points from 39 against the top two thirds.

So, I'm reserving judgement on how far we've progressed until after the next two games against QPR and Fulham. 3 points or more from those two, and I will allow myself to start believing!


View attachment 125946
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Bloody hell we beat teams worse than us and lose to teams better than us, you’re a genius 🤷‍♂️
 
CrookesBlade said:
Never understood what people mean by “flat track bully” in relation to football when “average” or “above average” will do.
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It's a term used by negative people when you're holding your own against other shit opposition.
It boils my piss tbh as you can only do your best with the tools you have to hand. But it's not good enough for some.
Hecky out. Barn door Billy out. Strangle your nannan as she still gives you 50p at Christmas.
Booooooooooooooo!
 
raimond said:
I very much take the point and well researched mate, but this year flat track bullies could easily go up as the division's so poor.
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There are literally 20 teams you could refer to as a flat track.

Of those that aren't, we had a mare against the WBA catapult team yet with a similar line up outplayed them twice last season. Even in that capitulation, had McGoldrick not missed a very good chance on half time, the game could have played out very differently.

Against Bournemouth, the xG was 2.31 vs 1.54 in their favour. But then you consider a penalty kick is 0.79 and that award was just plain wrong and the other was offside in the build up (xG 0.08) then 1.54 vs 1.44 shows United having the edge on chances which are legitimate if the rules had been correctly applied and actual legitimate goals 1-0.

So promotion is very much there for the taking for many teams. In our favour I doubt any team in the division had performed so far below their actual level vs the rest of the field in the first 18 games of the season.
 
ucandomagic said:
Not a graph today, but a visualization that maybe tells a thousand words.

Like everybody else, I've got excited about the way that we're now playing on the front foot, and you've probably noticed that I've started posting graphs to convince myself that we're going to make the top 6.

However, when you look at the league table with some colours added, the close proximity of almost all of the green suddenly leaps out - we've got 22 points from 24 against the bottom third and 7 points from 39 against the top two thirds.

So, I'm reserving judgement on how far we've progressed until after the next two games against QPR and Fulham. 3 points or more from those two, and I will allow myself to start believing!


View attachment 125946
Click to expand...
Excited why ? two games against two god awful teams Cardiff we could have lost if they had 11 men and even with 10 men we where hanging on the last 10 mins.
So far it’s papering over the cracks
 
Champagneblade said:
There are literally 20 teams you could refer to as a flat track.

Of those that aren't, we had a mare against the WBA catapult team yet with a similar line up outplayed them twice last season. Even in that capitulation, had McGoldrick not missed a very good chance on half time, the game could have played out very differently.

Against Bournemouth, the xG was 2.31 vs 1.54 in their favour. But then you consider a penalty kick is 0.79 and that award was just plain wrong and the other was offside in the build up (xG 0.08) then 1.54 vs 1.44 shows United having the edge on chances which are legitimate if the rules had been correctly applied and actual legitimate goals 1-0.

So promotion is very much there for the taking for many teams. In our favour I doubt any team in the division had performed so far below their actual level vs the rest of the field in the first 18 games of the season.
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Bournemouth never deserved to beat us but somehow we contrived to lose - they really were nothing special but got lucky in the rain.
 

ATL Recs said:
Excited why ? two games against two god awful teams Cardiff we could have lost if they had 11 men and even with 10 men we where hanging on the last 10 mins.
So far it’s papering over the cracks
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Obviously January is key , even without any money in the bank to spend - will we keep MGW & Jebbo ? Will we get a decent fee for Berge ? Can we persuade any daft club to take on the wages of Mousset or McBurnie or Jack Robinson or Freeman or Stevens ? Can we send Olsen & Davies back ? Can Egan stop making mistakes ? Can Didsy or Billy score more of their chances ? Will Hourihane get off his lazy arse ? Can we somehow scrape together enough money to acquire a physically dominant CB ? And a muscular athletic MF ? Can Brewster recover from his hammie tweak + go on a scoring run ? Can Wes maintain his form ?
These and loads of other issues await clarification in January ....
It's a poor quality Championship , as Hecky says "it's there to be won by the team who wants it enough to be "on it" every game.
There's more chance of that under him than under his predecessor.
 
3 points is 3 points whoever you get them from.

Only played 2 of the 6 games against the top 3 so far. Granted WBA battered us by hurling the ball in constantly, but they're not pulling up trees ATM.

I've got a good feeling about this season.
 
The change of management will hopefully make a difference but looking at those 8 defeats you can split them into two groups.

Games we lost which we thoroughly deserved to lose:
West Brom (0-4) we played right into their hands with an awful team selection and were deservedly thrashed
Blackburn (1-3): the end of Slavisa. Outplayed, out-thought, out-fought despite going 1-0 up
Middlesbrough (0-2): deservedly lost although they scored two exceptional goals
Birmingham (0-1): first game of the season but we deserved to lose.

Games we lost which we didn't deserve to (and which might have been different under a less passive manager):
Bournemouth (1-2) needed a ridiculous penalty call
Millwall (1-2): lost to a 92nd minute screamer from a centre half. Down to 10 men for the last 35 minutes
Huddersfield (1-2): lost to a 94th minute goal after equalising in the 92nd
Blackpool (0-1): didn't take our chances, they took their only one

QPR and Fulham up next will give us a proper benchmark as to where we are. I would be disappointed with fewer than 3 points - we have to be aiming to beat QPR.
 
ucandomagic said:
Not a graph today, but a visualization that maybe tells a thousand words.

Like everybody else, I've got excited about the way that we're now playing on the front foot, and you've probably noticed that I've started posting graphs to convince myself that we're going to make the top 6.

However, when you look at the league table with some colours added, the close proximity of almost all of the green suddenly leaps out - we've got 22 points from 24 against the bottom third and 7 points from 39 against the top two thirds.

So, I'm reserving judgement on how far we've progressed until after the next two games against QPR and Fulham. 3 points or more from those two, and I will allow myself to start believing!


View attachment 125946
Click to expand...
I've added 2 columns to show where the teams were before the game. I did this because the table NOW doesn't necessarily reflect the table THEN.

We have beaten 3 teams (4 if you class Reading) above us in the table. That's half of our wins.

For me the major disappointing games were Blackpool, Millwall and Middlesbrough. We should have won all of those games

1638804254551.png
 
People are knocking themselves out with stats. on here.! What for? the only stat that matters is that end column headed Points. Get those and we'll get promotion.
 
ucandomagic said:
Not a graph today, but a visualization that maybe tells a thousand words.

Like everybody else, I've got excited about the way that we're now playing on the front foot, and you've probably noticed that I've started posting graphs to convince myself that we're going to make the top 6.

However, when you look at the league table with some colours added, the close proximity of almost all of the green suddenly leaps out - we've got 22 points from 24 against the bottom third and 7 points from 39 against the top two thirds.

So, I'm reserving judgement on how far we've progressed until after the next two games against QPR and Fulham. 3 points or more from those two, and I will allow myself to start believing!
Click to expand...

mattbianco1 said:
I've added 2 columns to show where the teams were before the game. I did this because the table NOW doesn't necessarily reflect the table THEN.

We have beaten 3 teams (4 if you class Reading) above us in the table. That's half of our wins.

For me the major disappointing games were Blackpool, Millwall and Middlesbrough. We should have won all of those games

View attachment 125984
Click to expand...
Was the 0-0 at home to forest before or after we drew 1-1 away with them?
 
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