We need to talk about scoring goals

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Champagneblade

Champagneblade

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This doesn't seem to come up anywhere near as often in interviews as it should do, for some reason. No specific agenda to this post, just laying out what the stats say for a discussion point.

Cup form aside, which has been against lower league opposition plus Burnley 2nd XI vs our 2nd XI this is how we've done in front of goal:

13/25 matches we have failed to score at all
9 matches we have scored 1 goal.
3 matches we have scored 2 goals.
We have 15 from 25 matches. GD-26.

Last season:
12/38 matches we failed to score at all.
17/38 matches we scored 1 goal.
5/38 matches we scored 2 goals.
4/38 matches we scored 3 goals.
We had 39 from 38 matches. GD0.

So we've already failed to score in more matches than the whole of last season and rather worryingly from scoring in 68% of matches last season we have scored in 20% fewer games i.e. 48%. Less than half.

We hear a lot of talk about not opening up and yes it isn't fun to see your team take a doing but I'm more concerned about goal scoring.

If we're going to be losing most matches then I'd rather we go down somewhat cavalier if possible 3-2, 3-1 than a series of meagre 1-0s.

The reason why is simple. We will have defenders who will be back next season and will be against weaker attacks. We can be confident our defence will be stronger than it is right now.

However goalscoring is a habit. It isn't like some sort of tap we can just turn on in August in the Championship.

Of the 12 games where we have scored, these have been the forward pairings:
McGoldrick/Burke 4
McGoldrick/Sharp 2
McGoldrick/Brewster 2
McGoldrick/McBurnie 1
McBurnie/Burke 1
McBurnie/Brewster 1

On balance, here are the partnerships in the games we failed to score:
McBurnie/Sharp 3
McGoldrick/Burke 2
McBurnie/Brewster 1
McBurnie/Burke 1
McGoldrick/McBurnie 1
McGoldrick/Brewster 1
McGoldrick/Mousset 1
McGoldrick/Mousset/Brewster 1
Burke/Brewster 1
McGoldrick/Sharp 1

So, McGoldrick/Burke has resulted in goals in 5/7 matches, followed by McGoldrick/Sharp and McGoldrick/Brewster in 2/3 though in the case of the latter it was also a dud when Mousset was added v Burnley for a trio.

By far the most unsuccessful partnership has been McBurnie/Sharp, tried on 3 occasions and failed to produce on all 3.

As individuals:
McGoldrick 16 starts 9 produced goals (56%)
Burke 10 starts 6 produced goals (60%)
Brewster 6 starts 3 produced goals (50%)
Sharp 6 starts 2 produced goals (33%)
McBurnie 9 starts 3 produced goals (33%)

So a few options are available. Do we go with a more attacking line up? 3-4-3, 3-4-1-2, 4-3-3 for instance?

Do we try pairings that haven't been given much of a go?

The McBurnie/Brewster pairing some have spoken of for next season has a 1 in 2 goals production but hardly nay minutes together. Likewise McBurnie/Burke similarly. We've also never tried the pace and unpredictability of Burke alongside Sharp.

One thing is for sure in my opinion is that goalscoring should be top of the agenda and be getting far more focus as a problem to solve. We should be acknowledging those pairings that simply don't work and either experimenting with new ones or reenforcing those that did work.

What are your thoughts on how to get more potency out of the team?
 

Invariably the team isn’t set up to score.
Quite why, I don’t understand. Possibly because someone’s approach is rather negative and does not expect us to win.
Whichever two up front we go with, I believe McGoldrick should be playing behind them.
That hardly ever happens. Should have been that ´front’ three at West Ham and Fulham - but obviously we didn’t go out intending to win (or score).
 
Burke and Sharp up front to start with for me. Sharp is the best one we have for holding the ball up top, making it stick, and bringing others into play, rather than it just bouncing of McBurnies head when we constantly launch it long, whilst Burkes sheer pace causes panic in oppositions defence, provides us with an outlet, and it doesn't allow the opposition defence to push up too much up the pitch as they have the thought of raw pace against them.

For home matches I would also have McGoldrick playing as a three just behind them but possibly not for away games unless we are going for it with 20 to play.

The fact that the stats show that this pairing hasn't been used once this season...is just another example of just how wrong our management have got things this season. In a total shit show this is just another string to our bow.
 
For me you raise a good point and it brings up a couple of frustrations.
The continual argument about systems and the lack of flexibility with it means that we have spent much of the season trying to fit LB’s (Stevens), DM’s (Ampadu) and last resorts (Bryan, Robinson and arguably Jagielka) into 3 CB’s. All this while we have 6 forwards, 3 of which costing more than £50 million pounds between them, and only play two each week. This until the inevitable throw them all on in the last half an our approach to salvage something from the game.
I’m not sure there’s many other Premier League with so many strikers (maybe Fulham/West Brom) who feel the need to rotate them so much, unnecessarily. It can’t be good for creating a settle partnership or consistency.
I’d like to see, especially considering our current injury situation, a more attack minded approach. Something similar to Liverpool’s 4-3-3, with our young, quicker players (Brewster, McBurnie and Burke) up top. Stick with them to try and strike up some consistency ahead of next season.
Let’s have a go and if we concede 3, I’d at least like to have the hope we might score 2.
 
BlairBlade said:
Invariably the team isn’t set up to score.
Quite why, I don’t understand. Possibly because someone’s approach is rather negative and does not expect us to win.
Whichever two up front we go with, I believe McGoldrick should be playing behind them.
That hardly ever happens. Should have been that ´front’ three at West Ham and Fulham - but obviously we didn’t go out intending to win (or score).
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the problem with playing mcgoldrick in the number 10 role is that we havent got the players to form the midfield pivot 2 behind him as highlighted on motd last night with rice and souceck at west ham im afraid lundstram norwood and fleck just arnt good enough
 
McGoldrick has been decent to good most of the season.

The overall contribution of the others, factoring in goals, ranges from Mediocre but uneven (Sharp) through poor with occasional good bits (Burke) one good game in 8, the rest poor to awful (McBurnie) and uniformly awful (Mousset and Brewster).

Based on this I would start Didzy until he drops to the level of the others. Doesn’t matter who starts with him. Indeed, I might be tempted to stop the silly pretence Burke is a striker, stick him in midfield, and play 5 behind Didzy as a false 9. Worth a try.
 
It suggests, strongly, that Dids n Sharp could very well be our best bet which :-

a. With a combined age of 124, is not much of a feather in the cap for our recruitment and

b. Is rather confusing why this 39
Goal Championship partnership had to wait a full season and a half to be afforded the opportunity to start together in the PL.

UTB
 
Revolution said:
McGoldrick has been decent to good most of the season.

The overall contribution of the others, factoring in goals, ranges from Mediocre but uneven (Sharp) through poor with occasional good bits (Burke) one good game in 8, the rest poor to awful (McBurnie) and uniformly awful (Mousset and Brewster).

Based on this I would start Didzy until he drops to the level of the others. Doesn’t matter who starts with him. Indeed, I might be tempted to stop the silly pretence Burke is a striker, stick him in midfield, and play 5 behind Didzy as a false 9. Worth a try.
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why not at least we might get more than the 25% possesion were getting in every game our overlapping centre backs .. well they dont overlap anymore so why play 3 at the back lets get more bodies in midfield no point playing 2 strikers when weve no possesion of the ball
 
We didn’t even attempt to score against Fulham until we had about 25minutes left. Unsurprisingly we came up blank again, after spending 70% of the game uninterested in attacking.

that said even when we were good last season sharp and mcburnie was never a combination that worked so who knows what the thinking behind that was??
 
When our manager is now talking about a back 8, that answers a few questions in terms of why we aren't scoring.

I think the lack of a 'proper' midfield this season is one of the biggest factors. It's obviously chopped and changed on almost game-by-game basis, which won't have helped. That said, it was obvious last season that we were not creating enough. We should have gone absolutely all out for Buendia.
 

The issue is we need about 25 minutes of the ball and 5/6 chances to convert. We don’t get that level of time or number of chances and won’t adapt. This is why we lose by one most games, surviving prem teams need at best 2 chances to get one, top end teams convert nearly all their chances too.

We don’t create and when we do, we rarely convert.

The time for fannying about has long passed, we now need to build up a working partnership for next season. To me that it McG in the middle with Brewster and McB up top to build some rapport and understanding. Burke as the bench option to run at defences, and Sharp / Moose I’d be looking at moving on.

That is no disrespect to Sharp but we need to think of the future now, and if we’re starting him up top next season then it’ll be another season where we’re relying on his goals only and not blooding a replacement.
 
Jon Bon II said:
Get a more potent, attack minded manager.
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Isn’t this the same manager that masterminded over 180 points and loads of goals in the two promotion seasons
He has set us up to survive in the Premiership and was successful last season.
We will now be back in a lower league so I expect him to be attack minded.
Norwich took the opposite route and failed first time, so it will be interesting to see what they do if promoted for next season.
 
I am not totally sure of the coaching heirachy at the Lane.

Darren Ward, goalkeeping coach. Alan Knill and Chris Wilder both former defenders. Jags seems to be giving experienced guidance to the younger defenders during playing time.

Over at Everton they took a raw, inexperienced youngster (DCL) and under the expert guidance of Duncan Ferguson have developed a polished Premier league striker.

Everton may not have invested heavily with their purchase price but have put the hours and effort in to convert a player that no one recognises (in particular us) into a top class player who is now seriously knocking on the international door.

We should be recruiting a coach who will specialise in the striker department.

Get this right and McBurnie, Brewster, Burke could prove to be the cheapest investments we have ever made.
 
Lord help us if McGoldrick goes on a goal drought as has happened before.

We need to bring in another McGoldrick a younger version,may i suggest Yan Dhanda.
 
Great topic.
Heres my take.
We should use Burke in the Vardy role.
No need to laugh... he has pace to burn, is as strong as an ox, and runs on Duracell batteries.
As soon as we win posession our first thought should be look for Burke and play any ball he can chase up the pitch. Either over the top or through the lines. He should know in advance where its going and therefore get there first quite often. The ball should be played in the direction of the space between the edge of the 6 yard box and edge of the penalty area.
If Burke gets there first, if a shot is "on", he shoots. Okay he may not score often but it puts the oppo defence in a panic
If a shot isn't "on" he runs to the bye line, stops and passes the ball back to either side of the D where our other striker and any midfielders who can get there are running in to shoot. He doesnt need to look for them, its their job to get there, his job to pass into that area.
This does many things for us.
1. defences will have to drop back deeper as they would be scared shitless.
2. because of 1, our midfield would have more room to play in, and would not suffer the agressive press that they get currently when on the ball, so our middies would have more time and space to find their colleagues with the ball, and to get our half decent passing game going.
3. by becoming much less predictable we will be much harder to play against and whilst we may ship a few more goals by stretching the game, this move doesn't commit all the team up the field, so we would retain decent defensive shape for covering any counter attacks.
A very simple fix with players we have available.
 
The coaching for our attackers is piss poor.
The creativity of our midfield and wing backs in creating chances for our attackers is even worse.
 
Finally someone else has noticed this problem that doesn't get talked about 😂 CW and fans like to deflect this by talking about key injuries but these aren't attacking players out! Egan, O'Connell and Basham aren't reliant on scoring and creating..
 
S64 Blade said:
When our manager is now talking about a back 8, that answers a few questions in terms of why we aren't scoring.

I think the lack of a 'proper' midfield this season is one of the biggest factors. It's obviously chopped and changed on almost game-by-game basis, which won't have helped. That said, it was obvious last season that we were not creating enough. We should have gone absolutely all out for Buendia.
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yeah midfield is the area thats done for us this season at least 2 more should have been brought in before the season started not enough competition and 2 of our first choice midfielders completely out of form and the other one who hasnt given a shit from day one icing on the cake when berge got injured
 
As people have observed, our whole system is not set up to go forward and attack. The three regular midfielders aren't skilled enough to compete in midfield so end up camped in front of our five man backline and we don't play on-the-floor developmental phases through the middle of the park and either hold onto the ball or challenge for it when not in possession. When we aren't in possession, because the ball winners don't have the conkers to 'win-the-ball' we adopt a strategy of damage limitation hoping our efforts will result in Ramsdale being the ultimate change of possession. There's almost half a pitch at most times between our midfield and the front two, which eventually drags them out of position to receive any ball out of defence, and we are incredibly slow in changing defence into attack too. It usually ends up in the crossing zone or just with the front two trying desperately to figure out a way to get it up the pitch.

What we don't do is put together passing sequences and we don't see the midfield pass and move into space. Options, once you have the ball are so badly limited, hence the hoof to McBurnie or (as seen vs Fulham) an aimless, desperate smack down the wing for Billy's ageing legs to chase into touch. No possession-based threat, no strategy, no killer pass or create space to shoot. And when we shoot, it's invariably wide, high or at the keeper. How many 'saves' or woodwork strikes have we achieved this season compared with other teams?

It needs a rethink. Now we are doomed, it can start right now, before we start tinkering at the beginning of next season and still start whumping it to the front man again.

pommpey
 
Great OP and some interesting replies. My two-penneth is that Burke and McGoldrick have been our two best strikers this season (the player rating stats on here bear this out).
I think one of the things that is contributing to our constant rotation of the strikers is our defensive aerial vulnerability. Weird right, but hear me out?!
I reckon due to the lack of aerial strength at the back Wilder considers that he HAS to play either Didz or McBurnie in most minutes of every game to defend set pieces. When one is injured or out of form the other plays come what may.
Until we get a back 3/5 that is better at heading the ball, or get some new bodies into the midfield 3 with some heading ability then I think Wilder will continue to do this. I'm going off topic but I would rate our defensive heading ability of the 'back 8' a bit like this:
FB/WBs - Stevens 5/10; Baldock 5/10; Lowe 3/10; Bogle 5/10; Osborn 4/10
CBs - Jags - 7/10; Bash 6/10; O'Connell 7.5/10; Egan 8/10; Bryan 7/10; Ampadu 5/10
MF - Fleck 4/10; Norwood 4/10; Lunny 6/10
As you can see its a problem for us and causing us issues all round the team
If we had some absolute monsters who are great at heading at the back (Dawson/Burn/Ogbonna/Dunk for example or even tall and strong midfielders in the mould of Doucoure/Phillips/Declan Rice), then we could experiment with playing 2 smaller strikers together.
 
It sort of feels like any time we do try to attack that we hand the ball away and gift a goal. We've gone behind early in so many games that it's impossible to build on. If we try to get forward we concede, if we try to sit tight then we're waiting to get picked off without offering a threat in return. We don't hold the ball at all without Norwood (was it around 25% possession vs Fulham till he came on?) but he's making such criminal errors he needed to be dropped. We're terrible when we try to go long but the players at the back are either not good enough to build from the back (see Bryan's wonderful backpass) or don't have any movement ahead of them. We can't press high up the pitch like we used to because we can't rely on the players behind.

We ended up with a back three of Jags, Ampadu, and Bryan. That's not even a good Championship line up. I'd like to see us get back to more attacking ways but by the same token look how many goals were conceded early or first-half. First thing new managers always look to do is get it tight at the back and then build from there, but as much as we're trying we can't get that far. If we went out toe-to-toe with sides we'd be 4-0 down by half-time.
 

the most damning statistic this season is shot conversion rates

last season we had 293 shots scoring 39 goals so a 13.1 per cent conversion rate

so far this season weve had more shots 301 already but only scored 15
for a paltry 5 per cent conversion rate

supplied by transfermkt

so we cant say its the supply, its totally the lack of finish
 
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