The Task

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Geordie Blade

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I reckon we're going to need about 35 points to survive. As things stand today (after the Newcastle home match), that means another 30 points from 20 games. The table below shows where I think those points might come from. It is not what I think will happen - it is what needs to happen for us to get to 35 points, so there's no need to say "you think we'll get a win at XXX??". I'll update the table after each game, with a new column showing how the situation changes (i.e. our task getting easier or harder). This is more for the people who are interested in the numbers side of the game.

At the moment it understandably looks very tough (win 8, draw 6, lose 6). We can't afford many slips ups in the 'easier' games. One thing that it shows at the moment, is that we shouldn't get too despondent if the next three games don't yield many points - three are easier opportunities coming later. If we lose to Spurs, it means we'll need to find another point from somewhere else (maybe Leicester away?). On the other hand, if we pick anything up again the Manchester teams, it gives us a bit more wiggle room somewhere else. Again, remember that these are not predictions - it's more of a list of the requirement to stay up.

Points 1.png
 

I reckon we're going to need about 35 points to survive. As things stand today (after the Newcastle home match), that means another 30 points from 20 games. The table below shows where I think those points might come from. It is not what I think will happen - it is what needs to happen for us to get to 35 points, so there's no need to say "you think we'll get a win at XXX??". I'll update the table after each game, with a new column showing how the situation changes (i.e. our task getting easier or harder). This is more for the people who are interested in the numbers side of the game.

At the moment it understandably looks very tough (win 8, draw 6, lose 6). We can't afford many slips ups in the 'easier' games. One thing that it shows at the moment, is that we shouldn't get too despondent if the next three games don't yield many points - three are easier opportunities coming later. If we lose to Spurs, it means we'll need to find another point from somewhere else (maybe Leicester away?). On the other hand, if we pick anything up again the Manchester teams, it gives us a bit more wiggle room somewhere else. Again, remember that these are not predictions - it's more of a list of the requirement to stay up.

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Bizarrely post lockdown last season we got wins against teams I didn't expect like Spurs and Chelsea.
 
Bizarrely post lockdown last season we got wins against teams I didn't expect like Spurs and Chelsea.

Exactly right - hopefully we'll get some more of those to take the pressure off the other games. It is definitely doable. Unlikely. A long shot. But doable!
 
Exactly right - hopefully we'll get some more of those to take the pressure off the other games. It is definitely doable. Unlikely. A long shot. But doable!

Despite our slump I thought we did rather well against Man Utd the other week.
 
This team basically needs to transform into last year's...and fast.

A win AND a clean sheet can do nothing except breed a bit of confidence where they now know that they can compete at this level again. OK Newcastle were shite and we got a bit of luck but the ledger was on our side for once. Worst thing we can do is capitulate and revert back to type again, it's Wilder's job to keep their tails up and build on the last 2 games.
 
I wonder if all the talk about Wilder going last week has made them all take a look at what that might mean for them and their careers?
Better the devil you know and all that!
Whatever the reasons let's hope that togetherness we showed last night continues..
UTB
 
I want us to beat the Derby points total and go down fighting...anything beyond that would be (an astonishing) bonus. Just good to see the United we know is still in there somewhere.

That was the massive positive from last night.....we’ve still got it....yehhhssss....must give the players so much confidence.
Obviously I reckon we’ll still be relegated but at least it bodes well regards keeping Wilder and going for promotion next season.
 
That was the massive positive from last night.....we’ve still got it....yehhhssss....must give the players so much confidence.
Obviously I reckon we’ll still be relegated but at least it bodes well regards keeping Wilder and going for promotion next season.
That's what it's about for me now - not losing the character and identity that got us here in the first place and setting up for a positive start to the next campaign
 
For me we are down, it's too little to late.

However....

Assume we get little to nothing against the top sides, maybe the odd draw? Anything here is a bonus.

Simply put we NEED to win the games against WBA, West Ham, Fulham, Leeds, Brighton, Palace, Newcastle and Burnley.

Draws/losses in any of these ganes and its the coffin nailed shut.

Think WBA are down, we then NEED another two teams to have a shocking 2nd half of the season.

Based on last night Newcastle are atrocious and see them getting sucked in, which probably leaves Fulham or Brighton as the teams which need to see form drop off considerably.

It's not beyond possible, but theres a reason we are 1-20 for the drop at some bookies
 
Just written on another thread about Newcastle being zero threat last night compared to what Spurs, ManU and City will be like.

BUT, I think that will suit us in that we've never been good at breaking down teams who park the bus. Remember last season when we went at teams away from home as opposition teams dont generally sit back when they're at home.

Last night we played on the front foot, almost like we did last season and if we can just crank that up a little bit more against the 'top half' sides we have a fighting chance.
 
We're playing Championship football next season. All we need to do this season is avoid a record low points total (very confident we will) not finish bottom (hopeful we won't) and go into the second division with a team in good spirits and ready to win some games.
 
If we manage this... it will go down in the record books, Wilder will maintain his status as one of the best English managers, we could see an epic Agueroooo moment of our own..

If we don't... it's expected.

It's win win now and the pressure is off, hopefully we see some performances which indicate that... I would be happy going down but playing attractive and positive footy, developing our young blood
 

Just written on another thread about Newcastle being zero threat last night compared to what Spurs, ManU and City will be like.

BUT, I think that will suit us in that we've never been good at breaking down teams who park the bus. Remember last season when we went at teams away from home as opposition teams dont generally sit back when they're at home.

Last night we played on the front foot, almost like we did last season and if we can just crank that up a little bit more against the 'top half' sides we have a fighting chance.
This is true - we looked better last night before Newcastle went down to 10 men and showed even less attacking ambition
 
I’d say giving us another 45 points from a possible 60 is incredibly generous given that we currently have 5 points from a possible 54! 🤣
I agree, it's ridiculous. But l honestly only had us winning against middle to lower Prem teams who l think we could get something from. Obviously we're not going to win all those games, but if l was to take this seasons form, we'd have 12 points by the end of the season and l genuinely don't think we'll continue at the levels we've seen this far. We've got every chance of beating the likes of Fulham, West Brom, Newcastle, Brighton, Burnley, West Ham, Leeds, Villa and getting draws against the likes of Palace, Wolves, Southampton. Its even throw Everton and Arsenal in there. The rest are odds on losses, no doubt, but there are 100% points to be had and l think we're good enough to get some.

50 points is ridiculous though.
 
UPDATE AFTER SPURS:

In a nutshell, the size of the task is now slightly harder ("No shit, Sherlock" ; "Keep shovelling, Watson") - I've had to upgrade the loss at Leicester to a draw. It now means that, all other things being equal, we would have to go on a run of only one defeat in the last twelve games. I'm starting to wonder whether we might be at risk of relegation :(.

Points 2.png
 
A bonus three points! :D :D :D This makes the rest of the task slightly easier. In theory (and all other things being equal), I can now downgrade the draw away at Leicester to a loss, and we now don't need to beat Southampton - a draw would do.

Points 3.png
 
It's 'as you were' for the roadmap to survival. Man City away was always marked as an 'L', so no change for the task ahead. The pessimistic view remains that it is still a HUGE task, but the optimist says that the win against Man Utd has given us a better chance. Still a tough run ahead. We 'need' 8 points from the next 7 games. Anything more than that will be a bonus.

Points 4.png
 

It's 'as you were' for the roadmap to survival. Man City away was always marked as an 'L', so no change for the task ahead
I’d say its actually slightly better than as you were; we’ve come through both Manc teams away and not only picked up the 3pts at OT, but also maintained level goal difference. Not many teams will get through those two games without taking a bit of a hit on that front, so a bit of a positive in defeat.
 

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