Second Season Syndrome & A Tougher League

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Extreme pessimism is pretty rational for Blades- our hopes have been crushed in a variety of ways.

But with Wilder leading this team, surely the worst that can happen next year is lower mid-table.

Ten wins and ten draws will be enough for safety- of course we can manage that
 

I think the league will be much better next season teams like West Ham / Southampton/ Everton won’t be near the bottom of the league.
Plus top 6 teams will be better Chelsea and arsenal will by miles better

Only luck is 2/3 of the teams coming up look terrible for the prem only Leeds look like youd expect them to stay up
 
FallowfieldBlade said:
I think the league will be much better next season teams like West Ham / Southampton/ Everton won’t be near the bottom of the league.
Plus top 6 teams will be better Chelsea and arsenal will by miles better

Only luck is 2/3 of the teams coming up look terrible for the prem only Leeds look like youd expect them to stay up
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Only a Sheffield Utd fan could write this. I’ll guarantee no fan of any other premier league club could self harm like this! 10th. Fucking TENTH at worst, with the best management team outside of Liverpool’s and Man City. God give me strength. 1976 to 1988 anybody?
 
BanderSerge said:
Only a Sheffield Utd fan could write this. I’ll guarantee no fan of any other premier league club could self harm like this! 10th. Fucking TENTH at worst, with the best management team outside of Liverpool’s and Man City. God give me strength. 1976 to 1988 anybody?
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I think we’ll stay up easy again but I think we’d be kidding to expect top 10 every season.
The leagues basically the top 10 spending 100 million a season the rest aiming for survival
 
Silent Blade said:
Not really

View attachment 86300
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Sort of makes my point £9m don't even buy you a Lys Mousset. Right through the division matchday income only buys you a Sander Berge, then you come to the top six and the amounts become eye watering but having been making this sort of money for years they should be able to live with the loss for a short while, if not tough shit. Compared to TV and prize money matchday income for us is a drop in the ocean, the top six mostly have ticket prices four times ours and some have attendances twice bigger than what we achieve. Looking at those figures SUFC will be taking the smallest hit I don't see the need for the doom and gloom, if the figures say anything it is that we have a lot of catching up to do even Bournemouth's turnover dwarf's ours, easy to see which three clubs were promoted.
 
Digs blade said:
Fair enough I always respect opinions on here. Just think spurs are incredibly inconsistent and Everton and Arsenal incredibly average. I don’t see any of those three being any better then they have been this season
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Their ceiling is much higher though. Given the size of the clubs and the £££ they can invest.

Wilder has worked miracles, he really has. He needs to be backed financially now though, like Leicester/Wolves have been, to be in the mix of that pack.
The so called 'big 6' is more of a 'top 8' now, as Leicester/Wolves have both had more than 1 season now of breaking into that top 8.

Blades/Burnley/Everton/Southampton are all currently in that next group.
 
Digs blade said:
Fair enough I always respect opinions on here. Just think spurs are incredibly inconsistent and Everton and Arsenal incredibly average. I don’t see any of those three being any better then they have been this season
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We'll have to see but I think Spurs will be CL next season. Just need to bring in 2/3 players and get shut of some others. Several of their important players have all suffered injuries and Dele off form.

Arteta will be able to bring his own players in. I think they'll do better.

Everton have a top manager. They've had some dreadful look with injuries. I suspect they'll be around where we are next season.
 
Man how exciting is it to be a Blade 😁

I agree this year will be stronger but then so will we, with the season back to some sort of normality and the players getting more rest between games I think that this could all play into our hands as the top teams will probably get a short break before being back into playing games for Europe.

After this season and with rumours of us looking at Swift from Reading, I imagine that Wilder maybe looking to revert back to the style that we played in the Championship, being more positive on the front foot got us to where we are and I feel that after lock down we sat back and lost that bite we had to go forwards, we got it back and then tired legs ran in, so we can at least look at some reasonable reasons why our form dipped.

This transfer market and off season is about the most interesting one ever, Wilder won't be fucking around, he will want everything sorted out so we are ready for game one, no matter what happens our squad is stronger for next season with the experience of this season.

I really haven't a clue what will happen going forwards, but with Wilder I can't help but feel next season will be even better than this one.
 
Roygbiv said:
We could easily be relegated as its a hard league and we will have the lowest wage bill again you'd think but talking in terms of history, it would be rare to see a team plummet from top 10 to bottom 3 in one season
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Hmmm, remember 1976? From 6th to 22nd. So long as we don’t sign Guthrie.
 
robbiez666 said:
Apart from Chris Wilder who described our players as championship/league 1, who said they're not Premier League players?
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It's part of what he does after a disappointing performance, he doesn't necessarily mean it literally like you suggest. Then after the next game he reins it in a bit. Bit of truth and kidology mixed up and it generally fucking works.
 
I think Leeds will be similar to us this season. WBA and whoever else will be down near the bottom (not saying their certs to go down!). If they do not go down Bournemouth, Villa and Watford will struggle again. I wouldn't be surprised to see West Ham down the bottom end again either and I think teams like Palace, Brighton and Newcastle (who did have a good season), may falter.

I don't expect us to finish as high next season, as this, but I think all things being equal, we should be looking at 12th.
 
robbiez666 said:
We'll have to see but I think Spurs will be CL next season. Just need to bring in 2/3 players and get shut of some others. Several of their important players have all suffered injuries and Dele off form.

Arteta will be able to bring his own players in. I think they'll do better.

Everton have a top manager. They've had some dreadful look with injuries. I suspect they'll be around where we are next season.
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My counter view there is;

Spurs - champions league in place of which team?

Arteta - still very much unproven as a manager

Everton- not done anything since I was a wet behind the ears teenager. I’m now 49
 
CentralQuay said:
Their ceiling is much higher though. Given the size of the clubs and the £££ they can invest.

Wilder has worked miracles, he really has. He needs to be backed financially now though, like Leicester/Wolves have been, to be in the mix of that pack.
The so called 'big 6' is more of a 'top 8' now, as Leicester/Wolves have both had more than 1 season now of breaking into that top 8.

Blades/Burnley/Everton/Southampton are all currently in that next group.
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I don’t read too much into this higher ceiling malarkey. Spurs and Arsenal are in transition and Everton haven’t threatened to do anything whatsoever for 30 years. I’d back us to be in and around all 3 of these teams next season
 

I think the op is a little lazy: second season syndrome and tactical systems being "found out" feel like tired clichés at this point.

I do think the league will get stronger though, and here's why:

City & Liverpool
Both clubs are full of talent, well run and filthy rich and both have been gradually improving year on year- I can't see any of that changing.

Man Utd & Chelsea
Neither have the calibre of manager of the two above, and that's what probabaly separates them as title challengers. However, both Man Utd and Chelsea are young, developing teams who have finished the season stronger than they started. They both have/will invest heavily in the transfer market too. Chelsea have already done great business and Man Utd apparently have serious ambitions of signing Jadon Sancho. I would expect both to be stronger.

Leicester & Wolves
It's no secret how well run both clubs are and how good their transfer business tends to be. I'd expect both to continue on the trajectory established in the last couple of years.

You'd expect the above 6 to be the main contenders for the Champions League places, but there are plenty of other teams with the potential to challenge in the top half, if they get their act together. Arsenal & Tottenham need no explanation and both Everton and West Ham are a sensible transfer policy away from utilising their above-average incomes.

Newcastle are potentially about to become a footballing superpower and join the elite, becoming the 3rd state owned club, after City and PSG. While seeing them challenge right at the top seems unlikely, any takeover would bring the sort of funds that would almost certainly improve on their current position.

Promoted Clubs
Leeds are the obvious threat; marketable, stable, good coach, pleasing style. We should still hope to be finishing above them, but they will almost certainly be an improvement on Norwich.
While West Brom won't be a threat to the elite, they're no mugs and have a capable squad and manager. I'd also hope Brentford stay down, as you'd assume they would be very dangerous with a PL budget, judging on the rabbit/that tricks they pull in the championship.


All in all, I would expect the league to be even tougher next year, so we can't stand still.
 
Some teams live by statistics, and let them effect them negatively.....subconsciously expecting them to play out.....not the Blades under Chris Wilder!!

The amount of times we've beaten the odds, upset the pundits, I don't expect any different next season!!🔴⚪
 
With the amount of clubs that have been mentioned on this thread that will do better next season, SUFC, Burnley, Brighton, Villa/Watford,& Palace, are in for a terrible season!

It looks like 3 from 5 for the drop then!

Thankfully simple maths puts the theory to bed. If a number of clubs improve & win more games, then they are taking points off other clubs [& not just SUFC, Burnley, Brighton, Villa/Watford,& Palace]. A tougher league does nor mean more points are available!

Another thing is that clubs have off days, how did Liverpool lose to Watford, how come we battered Chelsea at home & how did Leicester score 9 against Southampton? And how did WBA & Brentford take 1 point from their final 2 games?

So overall I am optimistic, without expecting us to reach the heady heights of this season, nor am I convinced that Leeds will be the runaway success that everyone thinks!

MTLBWY

UTB
 
robbiez666 said:
It has been a fantastic season. Both on-field and off-field have been superb and the team have vastly exceeded all expectations. Whilst Chris' achievement has been incredible I do think next season will be a much tougher ask and recruitment will be key to simply staying still.

Elephant in the room

Ok, before I start let me address the obvious point. Some of us, including me, said this in the Championship and look what happened. I'd address that, in hindsight, by saying that most of our first team turned out to be top 10 Championship players. But we are, as a team, much better than the sum-total of our parts. I'd argue that none of our outfield players would get in the starting 10 of any other top 10 team, aside from perhaps Burnley. Most of that is down to how we play and how our team would fare in a different formation.

Second season syndrome

There have been many teams who after an impressive first season have dropped off the next year. There are many reasons for this. One has to be the fact that strong TEAMS tend to lose their ethos and togetherness when the manager starts signing big billy bollocks players on more wages. It sows disharmony in the squad and that team ethic advantage disappears. The most recent example being Huddersfield and possibly Bournemouth. It's also the case that if teams continue to play the same way they are often 'found out', lose the element of surprise and become easier to play against/counter their tactics. It has been noticeable in the second half of the season that we've struggled when teams have matched our workrate and pressed us. The teams which have continued to play their normal game have given us the greater rewards. I feel we'll be paid a lot more respect next season with managers placing more emphasis on stopping our formation working. Of course, a magic new formation or way of playing could change all that.

Tougher League

Liverpool and Man City have been incredible this season. The rest of the top clubs, maybe Leicester and Wolves aside have arguably under-achieved. You would expect Man U, Spurs, Arsenal, Everton and Chelsea to be better next year. Further down, I'd expect West Ham and Bournemouth to do better.

Of the teams coming up, I think Leeds will do much better than Norwich (who were basically here to clear their debts). I suspect the two others who come up will probably offer more than Villa did this season.

Other teams, who have been in the top flight for a while, will have a youth system and pathway in place. We don't have that at the moment. Where they may be able to promote in-house to the first team squad we need to sign.

Funds

Funds will obviously be reduced this year. There's COVID, global recessions, reduced or no gates, reduced TV money, repayment of TV money and our owner has spent a lot of money purchasing the club, however he's done it. It's going to be tough. Teams usually spend more in their first season in the Premier League than the subsequent seasons. That's often because the squad needs that bigger investment to bridge the gap but also as these deals are often spread out over three years. Assuming ours are, then £20 million will be going out in paying for last season's signings.

The silver lining is that given the state of global economies many lower teams will be struggling and it should be much easier to get a bargain.

It's going to be a huge challenge for Wilder and Knill and for me finishing in the top 10 next season will be an even bigger achievement than doing it in our first season back.
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Let's have a poll on our finishing position for next season :p
 
Is there any tangible evidence that second season syndrome is an actual thing, always thought it was media bollocks aimed at any smaller clubs who'd dared to stay up?
 
Flatulent_Bob said:
Is there any tangible evidence that second season syndrome is an actual thing, always thought it was media bollocks aimed at any smaller clubs who'd dared to stay up?
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I've actually been counting this today because I do not believe in "second season syndrome". I have been surprised by my initial findings though.

I've gone back to the very beginning of the Premier League, so 1992/93 season (so I've included those that came up from the old Second Division to play in the inaugural Premier League). I haven't included Wolves yet for last season as I don't know exactly how this season ends up. But safe to say they are not hugely important as they've clearly done really well in their second season.

There are 44 sides that currently qualify.

17 acquired more points in their second season than in their first (38.64%)
26 acquired fewer points in their second season than in their first (59.09%)
*6 of these 26 were actually within 3 points of the previous year's tally
**14 of them were within 6 points
1 side picked up an identical points tally to the year before.

14 secured a lower league position in their second season than in their first (31.82%)
29 secured a higher league position in their second season than in their first (65.91%)
1 side finished in exactly the same position as the year before.

Of the 44 qualifying sides, 11 were relegated in their second season (25.00%).

Seems you could make a slim case for second season syndrome existing after all. Not what I was expecting to find at all, to be perfectly honest.

Disclaimer: I'm knackered and I have just posted this up without properly going over the data for errors. I'll look again in the morning.
 
The only truly arguable cases of sEcOnD sEaSoN sYnDrOmE in my mind:

95/96 - Forest (19 points worse off than their first season)
00/01 - Bradford (10 points worse off, went down)
01/02 - Ipswich (30 points, went down)
03/04 - Man City (10 points worse off)
06/07 - Wigan (13 points worse off)
06/07 - West Ham (14 points worse off)
07/08 - Reading (19 points worse off, went down)
10/11 - Birmingham (11 points worse off, went down)
12/13 - QPR (12 points worse off, went down)
18/19 - Huddersfield (21 points worse off, went down)
 
Some valid counter-arguments with massive second season swings the other way:

93/94 - Blackburn (13 points better off in their second season, finished runners-up)
02/03 - Blackburn (14 points better off, went from 10th to 6th and into Europe)
11/12 - Newcastle (19 points better off, finished 5th)
13/14 - Southampton (15 points better off, jumped from 14th to 8th)
15/16 - Leicester (won the league a full 40 points better off)
17/18 - Burnley (14 points better off, from 16th up to 7th)
 
moDtheGod said:
I've actually been counting this today because I do not believe in "second season syndrome". I have been surprised by my initial findings though.

I've gone back to the very beginning of the Premier League, so 1992/93 season (so I've included those that came up from the old Second Division to play in the inaugural Premier League). I haven't included Wolves yet for last season as I don't know exactly how this season ends up. But safe to say they are not hugely important as they've clearly done really well in their second season.

There are 44 sides that currently qualify.

17 acquired more points in their second season than in their first (38.64%)
26 acquired fewer points in their second season than in their first (59.09%)
*6 of these 26 were actually within 3 points of the previous year's tally
**14 of them were within 6 points
1 side picked up an identical points tally to the year before.

14 secured a lower league position in their second season than in their first (31.82%)
29 secured a higher league position in their second season than in their first (65.91%)
1 side finished in exactly the same position as the year before.

Of the 44 qualifying sides, 11 were relegated in their second season (25.00%).

Seems you could make a slim case for second season syndrome existing after all. Not what I was expecting to find at all, to be perfectly honest.

Disclaimer: I'm knackered and I have just posted this up without properly going over the data for errors. I'll look again in the morning.
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So historically 25% of teams get relegated in their 2nd season.
Nearly 40% of teams get more points whereas 60% get fewer points but 66% end up in a higher league position to the previous season, so improve.

So as a promoted side, you are three times as likely to finish higher in the league in your second season as you are to get relegated.

I'm still not buying it as a thing.
 
moDtheGod said:
The only truly arguable cases of sEcOnD sEaSoN sYnDrOmE in my mind:

95/96 - Forest (19 points worse off than their first season)
00/01 - Bradford (10 points worse off, went down)
01/02 - Ipswich (30 points, went down)
03/04 - Man City (10 points worse off)
06/07 - Wigan (13 points worse off)
06/07 - West Ham (14 points worse off)
07/08 - Reading (19 points worse off, went down)
10/11 - Birmingham (11 points worse off, went down)
12/13 - QPR (12 points worse off, went down)
18/19 - Huddersfield (21 points worse off, went down)
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So for us to go down based on this seasons survival tally, we'd have the 2nd biggest drop off ever behind Ipswich.

I don't think we will get as many points so we will probably end up on that list but it depends what people mean by 2nd season syndrome. To me it's doing well in your first then totally dropping off a cliff. Only Forest (they had finished 3rd in their first season so a drop was inevitable) , Reading, Ipswich and at a push Huddersfield (their first season wasn't great it's just that their 2nd was one of the worst of all time) have ever really done that.

I still believe that only Reading and Ipswich are the only 2 comparable to us based on their first and second seasons. Both finished top 10 then went down.
 
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Roygbiv said:
On 2nd season syndrome, 2 sides in the history of The Premier League have finished top 10 in their first season and been relegated the next one. There is also an argument that post lockdown could be seen as a new season. We lost momentum but still got enough points that over a season would see us comfortable in mid table.

Also people talk about Huddersfield and Hull and their second season syndromes but both those ended up finishing a couple of points above relegation in their first season after a good start. We are going to finish about 25 points above the relegation zone. Essentially I think "second season syndrome" is a bit of a nonsense. You can usually see from the season before what teams are going to struggle the season after. Take a look at Bournemouths post Christmas record last season for instance.

I do agree it will be a tougher league though and I don't think we will be top 10. We will likely be looking towards the bottom rather than the top but I still think staying in the league for another season should be seen as a success.
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Fook that!.... top 4 next season! 😁
 
robbiez666 said:
It has been a fantastic season. Both on-field and off-field have been superb and the team have vastly exceeded all expectations. Whilst Chris' achievement has been incredible I do think next season will be a much tougher ask and recruitment will be key to simply staying still.

Elephant in the room

Ok, before I start let me address the obvious point. Some of us, including me, said this in the Championship and look what happened. I'd address that, in hindsight, by saying that most of our first team turned out to be top 10 Championship players. But we are, as a team, much better than the sum-total of our parts. I'd argue that none of our outfield players would get in the starting 10 of any other top 10 team, aside from perhaps Burnley. Most of that is down to how we play and how our team would fare in a different formation.

Second season syndrome

There have been many teams who after an impressive first season have dropped off the next year. There are many reasons for this. One has to be the fact that strong TEAMS tend to lose their ethos and togetherness when the manager starts signing big billy bollocks players on more wages. It sows disharmony in the squad and that team ethic advantage disappears. The most recent example being Huddersfield and possibly Bournemouth. It's also the case that if teams continue to play the same way they are often 'found out', lose the element of surprise and become easier to play against/counter their tactics. It has been noticeable in the second half of the season that we've struggled when teams have matched our workrate and pressed us. The teams which have continued to play their normal game have given us the greater rewards. I feel we'll be paid a lot more respect next season with managers placing more emphasis on stopping our formation working. Of course, a magic new formation or way of playing could change all that.

Tougher League

Liverpool and Man City have been incredible this season. The rest of the top clubs, maybe Leicester and Wolves aside have arguably under-achieved. You would expect Man U, Spurs, Arsenal, Everton and Chelsea to be better next year. Further down, I'd expect West Ham and Bournemouth to do better.

Of the teams coming up, I think Leeds will do much better than Norwich (who were basically here to clear their debts). I suspect the two others who come up will probably offer more than Villa did this season.

Other teams, who have been in the top flight for a while, will have a youth system and pathway in place. We don't have that at the moment. Where they may be able to promote in-house to the first team squad we need to sign.

Funds

Funds will obviously be reduced this year. There's COVID, global recessions, reduced or no gates, reduced TV money, repayment of TV money and our owner has spent a lot of money purchasing the club, however he's done it. It's going to be tough. Teams usually spend more in their first season in the Premier League than the subsequent seasons. That's often because the squad needs that bigger investment to bridge the gap but also as these deals are often spread out over three years. Assuming ours are, then £20 million will be going out in paying for last season's signings.

The silver lining is that given the state of global economies many lower teams will be struggling and it should be much easier to get a bargain.

It's going to be a huge challenge for Wilder and Knill and for me finishing in the top 10 next season will be an even bigger achievement than doing it in our first season back.
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Bournemouth?? They’re gone mate
 
Thanks for the detailed Analysis MoDtheGod. The stats that struck me for Second season syndrome were.

17 acquired more points in their second season than in their first (38.64%)
26 acquired fewer points in their second season than in their first (59.09%)
*6 of these 26 were actually within 3 points of the previous year's tally
**14 of them were within 6 points
1 side picked up an identical points tally to the year before.


With 43 teams measured the chance of finishing with -6 points or worse (the following season) is a mere 12%. Taking into account -6 would not relegate us we have a very good chance (statistically) of staying up.
 

Thank you statisticians for some interesting information.

The info provided suggests we will stay up next season.

CW`s record as a manager is the clincher though.
 
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