Is this our chance to close the gap & shine?

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mattbianco1

mattbianco1

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I'm just thinking about the current climate and post-covid. Timo Werner has just gone to Chelsea for under £50m - that's an absolute steal BTW. Clubs are now going to be selling their players for a lot less than they would've been worth in January or last summer.

So, do we have an opportunity to pick up some absolute bargains?

There's talk of all the big clubs cutting their cloth due to their outgoings, potential drop in TV money etc. but we're relatively new at the top table so would've been shopping in the £15m-£20m market. All of a sudden, we may see >£30m players being sold for that sort of money.

We could also see a knock on in that we too have lost out, or will lose out on the TV money aswell, but this is the first season we've really ramped up spending so we're not as fragile as say Burnley or Bournemouth etc.

Given the excellent recruitment team we have, i'm fairly confident that we may see some big signings coming our way in the close-season.

Do i need to stop boozing or is this genuinely a time where we should be attacking the top 6 for the long-term?
 

Realistically, we will not and probably never in the foreseeable future challenge the top six. Their income dwarfs ours. It’s like saying Rotherham could become a permanent fixture in the PL.

If we can’t get this into our heads, every season in the PL will be a disappointment.
 
"Do i need to stop boozing or is this genuinely a time where we should be attacking the top 6 for the long-term?"

You attack the top 6 in the long-term, by doing exactly that, attacking it in the long-term.
Burnley/Bournemouth are not top 6 sides, so i'm not sure why being in a better position than them (is this even true?), means pushing for the top 6.

None of the current top 6, or Tottenham/Arsenal/Everton are in any financial difficulty whatsoever.
 
CentralQuay said:
"Do i need to stop boozing or is this genuinely a time where we should be attacking the top 6 for the long-term?"

You attack the top 6 in the long-term, by doing exactly that, attacking it in the long-term.
Burnley/Bournemouth are not top 6 sides, so i'm not sure why being in a better position than them (is this even true?), means pushing for the top 6.

None of the current top 6, or Tottenham/Arsenal/Everton are in any financial difficulty whatsoever.
Click to expand...

I think you missed the point I was making.

Burnley and Bournemouth are established PL sides (one of which is in big danger of going down). They have both spent a lot of money on players over the years and have still never really challenged in the division.

My point is that teams like that will really have to cut their cloth in this transfer window - Burnley have already spoken publicly about being worried financially.

This season we have spent money on players that we could only dream of until recently. The summer recruits were brought in with the expectation of 17th being a success. We need to crank that up to the next level now, we upgraded our Simon Moore to a Jamal Blackman to a Dean Henderson, and our Clayton Donaldson to David McGoldrick, our Richard Stearman to John Egan and our Lee Evans to Oli Norwood and now we need to do the same again - continual improvement in all areas.

I just feel if teams are being cautious with their spending as they have been spending big for years, the money that we will get for a top 10 finish will literally be the cherry on the cake for us.
We need to spend sensibly and wisely granted, but I feel we may have better buying power in this transfer window than the Burnley's, Brightons and Palace's etc. as we have been so well run over the Wilder years.

A lot of the mid-range Premier League teams are relying on the PL revenue to keep them going. The added revenue for us is a bonus, it's like we've gone from a salary job into one with annual On Top Earnings - something we've never benefited from before
 
CentralQuay said:
"Do i need to stop boozing or is this genuinely a time where we should be attacking the top 6 for the long-term?"

You attack the top 6 in the long-term, by doing exactly that, attacking it in the long-term.
Burnley/Bournemouth are not top 6 sides, so i'm not sure why being in a better position than them (is this even true?), means pushing for the top 6.

None of the current top 6, or Tottenham/Arsenal/Everton are in any financial difficulty whatsoever.
Click to expand...

Think you'll find this pandemic has hit every Club including the top six.

www.straitstimes.com

Football: Spurs borrow £175 million as Covid-19 pandemic hits revenue

LONDON (REUTERS) - Tottenham Hotspur have borrowed £175 million (S$300 million) from the Bank of England to ease the financial burden due to the loss of revenue amid the Covid-19 pandemic, the Premier League club said on Thursday (June 4). Read more at straitstimes.com.
www.straitstimes.com www.straitstimes.com
 
Id of thought wages would be the big issue unless they were to come down accordingly but I think it would take a couple of years of Covid to drive those down too.
 
The Burnley thing is interesting.

Outside looking in, I've always felt the owners there haven't ever forgotten what it was like trying to run the club pre-Premiership and their wage to turnover figures are usually amongst the "best" signifying a lot of money is being put away for a rainy day. Dyche, naturally and probably the supporters given their reaction to getting beat by us, are now in that danger zone where doing laps of honour once you've hit 40 points is an ever diminishing achievement. Charlton, Stoke, WBA, Bolton etc have all hit it and fallen, probably only a matter of time for Palace too. Given the size of the place, ground, general prosperity in the region, it's very hard to see how they can increase revenues to enable them to spend more. It may well be that for them, the Board and Manager are no longer together in their aims.

In four or five years time, you could probably say all of the above about us, I'm interested to see how Burnley manage it and what the effects are in the stability vs sterility dichotomy they find themselves in. History teaches us it's a very tough nut to crack, we should keep an eye on it for future reference.
 
mattbianco1 said:
I'm just thinking about the current climate and post-covid. Timo Werner has just gone to Chelsea for under £50m - that's an absolute steal BTW. Clubs are now going to be selling their players for a lot less than they would've been worth in January or last summer.

So, do we have an opportunity to pick up some absolute bargains?

There's talk of all the big clubs cutting their cloth due to their outgoings, potential drop in TV money etc. but we're relatively new at the top table so would've been shopping in the £15m-£20m market. All of a sudden, we may see >£30m players being sold for that sort of money.

We could also see a knock on in that we too have lost out, or will lose out on the TV money aswell, but this is the first season we've really ramped up spending so we're not as fragile as say Burnley or Bournemouth etc.

Given the excellent recruitment team we have, i'm fairly confident that we may see some big signings coming our way in the close-season.

Do i need to stop boozing or is this genuinely a time where we should be attacking the top 6 for the long-term?
Click to expand...

Post C-19, transfer fees are reduced because budgets are reduced. So if Werner was worth £70m and went for £50m it is indicative of that. I've had this discussion before with another Blade who didn't get it, if a player was out of reach before the break and his fee is now reduced he is still out of reach:

Player A - was £30m so too expensive from our budget of £60m

Player A - now £20m so too expensive from our budget of £40m
 
We could throw twice as much money at it than anyone else in the league but we still wouldn't be able to attract the top players like the big lads can.
Unfashionable club without clout in an unattractive city is not going to turn many heads.
We've just got to survive and rely on Wilder and Knill being magic if we want to carry on dining at the top table.
 
mattbianco1 said:
I think you missed the point I was making.

Burnley and Bournemouth are established PL sides (one of which is in big danger of going down). They have both spent a lot of money on players over the years and have still never really challenged in the division.

My point is that teams like that will really have to cut their cloth in this transfer window - Burnley have already spoken publicly about being worried financially.

This season we have spent money on players that we could only dream of until recently. The summer recruits were brought in with the expectation of 17th being a success. We need to crank that up to the next level now, we upgraded our Simon Moore to a Jamal Blackman to a Dean Henderson, and our Clayton Donaldson to David McGoldrick, our Richard Stearman to John Egan and our Lee Evans to Oli Norwood and now we need to do the same again - continual improvement in all areas.

I just feel if teams are being cautious with their spending as they have been spending big for years, the money that we will get for a top 10 finish will literally be the cherry on the cake for us.
We need to spend sensibly and wisely granted, but I feel we may have better buying power in this transfer window than the Burnley's, Brightons and Palace's etc. as we have been so well run over the Wilder years.

A lot of the mid-range Premier League teams are relying on the PL revenue to keep them going. The added revenue for us is a bonus, it's like we've gone from a salary job into one with annual On Top Earnings - something we've never benefited from before
Click to expand...

I don't understand where your view of Burnley being 'big spending' is coming from.
 
mattbianco1 said:
I'm just thinking about the current climate and post-covid. Timo Werner has just gone to Chelsea for under £50m - that's an absolute steal BTW. Clubs are now going to be selling their players for a lot less than they would've been worth in January or last summer.

So, do we have an opportunity to pick up some absolute bargains?

There's talk of all the big clubs cutting their cloth due to their outgoings, potential drop in TV money etc. but we're relatively new at the top table so would've been shopping in the £15m-£20m market. All of a sudden, we may see >£30m players being sold for that sort of money.

We could also see a knock on in that we too have lost out, or will lose out on the TV money aswell, but this is the first season we've really ramped up spending so we're not as fragile as say Burnley or Bournemouth etc.

Given the excellent recruitment team we have, i'm fairly confident that we may see some big signings coming our way in the close-season.

Do i need to stop boozing or is this genuinely a time where we should be attacking the top 6 for the long-term?
Click to expand...
Are you forgetting that were in the smaller boat as the big clubs, and our owner has to find millions of pounds to buy the ground etc?
Oh, and we don't get a quarter of the income of the top 10 never mind top 6.

Would be nice though.
 
There is going to be some wailing and nashing of teeth on here about the level of our recruitment targets this summer and we need to temper their expectations.

I think we will be recruiting mainly from top six Championship sides, some of the lesser leagues in Europe such as Turkey, Scandinavia, etc and maybe a punt or two on a Couple of Young players from further down the English pyramid.

The Covid effects combined with the ongoing assets purchase logjam and our wage structure limit us from raiding or attracting from the bigger leagues I should think, at least for this summer. If we can stop up next season, things off the pitch should be clearer by then, that may change.
 
CentralQuay said:
I don't understand where your view of Burnley being 'big spending' is coming from.
Click to expand...

Maybe not. They do often balance the books, but have still spent ~£20m on Wood, £15m on Brady, >£10m on flops like Vydra and £15m on Ben Gibson - if he's worth that, what are JOC & Egan worth?
 
We are probably one of the most financially fragile of the PL clubs. We are spending big money for the first time on both transfers & wages and the only source of funds is the TV income.
We have no wealthy benefactor to pour money in.
We've already had to borrow against future income to provide cashflow.
And the Club now has to find about £50m to buy out Uncle Kev , which takes us not one step further on the pitch.
Our ticket prices are sensibly low to cope with the economy of our catchment area compared with London & other economies.
If you analysed our grip on a PL place by looking at the financials , you would have to say it is tenuous.
It is the superb performance of our management and the development & spirit if our players which has lead to an incredible first season.
But with typical Blades luck , Covid has hit us at just the wrong time , shortly after we spent a chunk of our summer budget in January.
It is going to be a much bigger challenge to avoid relegation next season.
We may have to sacrifice JoC to raise the cash to make improvements in other areas - a la David Brooks.
But as long as we keep our manager , there's a decent chance of a 3rd season.
The talk of Europe has ratcheted up the hopes of many fans , but the dose of realism which we are currently swallowing is necessary to get us grounded again.
You can hear this in CW's comments after recent games.
We need each member of a full strength squad to be playing to 100% of their potential in order to get wins in the PL.
 

BushBlade said:
Realistically, we will not and probably never in the foreseeable future challenge the top six. Their income dwarfs ours. It’s like saying Rotherham could become a permanent fixture in the PL.

If we can’t get this into our heads, every season in the PL will be a disappointment.
Click to expand...

Or Wigan, or Wimbledon?
 
I think we're probably in a more precarious position than most financially.
Promoted clubs always spend (relatively) big just to give themselves a fighting chance of survival and competing in the PL. This is usually considered fine due to the "guaranteed" income from the TV companies. This income now looks a bit less guaranteed in the current climate and has highlighted just how bad it is to rely on one source for the majority of your income.
In our latest accounts, our spend on wages was circa 195% of our income. In normal circumstances this would be fine (and standard practice for promoted teams) as the next year's tv money will cover it. Remember, TV money in the Champ amounts to around £7/8mil per season, whereas Prem is closer to £100mil.
However now that the "product" is no longer guaranteed for the TV companies, it would seem more prudent to try and reduce the reliance on this income and keep costs low for the forseeable.
 
mattbianco1 said:
Maybe not. They do often balance the books, but have still spent ~£20m on Wood, £15m on Brady, >£10m on flops like Vydra and £15m on Ben Gibson - if he's worth that, what are JOC & Egan worth?
Click to expand...

Sheffield United's transfer deficit this season is higher than Burnley have had every season combined since their promotion.
If Vydra is a 'flop' for £10 million, McBurnie is equally a 'flop' with double the outlay.


JOC and Egan are 'worth' the figure dependent on what every other player in football is worth, their own clubs valuation.
If the club values JOC at £50 million, that is what he is worth.
 
If we can manage to yo-yo between the PL and the Championship over the course of the next 10-20 years, I would personally consider this to represent “success”.

UTB
 
thawot said:
Not at the moment no, but they're both similar in size to Rotherham and had lengthy spells in the top division.
Click to expand...
What’s that got to do with the OP and my response to it?
 
Will we will have much to spend in the summer window.The Prince has enough on his plate to deal with.
To bump up our spending he would have to pull out of his investments in the other clubs that he has.
Or find another investor willing to add to the club.
 
BushBlade said:
What’s that got to do with the OP and my response to it?
Click to expand...

You seemed to be making the point that our challenging the top six was as impossible as a small club sustaining a top flight berth, but that happens semi-regularly.

It might be unlikely but it's not completely beyond us to challenge the top six.
 
A cheeky £5m bid for Debruyne??? If you don't ask the answer is always no and all that
 
thawot said:
It might be unlikely but it's not completely beyond us to challenge the top six.
Click to expand...

Exactly.

I know Leicester won the league, but by doing that, it has propelled them into one of the top clubs in the country. I feel that persistent challenging the top 6 and a couple of European campaigns would certainly help to establish us as at least a top 8-10 club in the country.

The Leicester season was a freak occurrence and one that probably won't happen again, but a top 4 finish isn't beyond the realms of possibility, as we've proved this season.

In no particular order, i'd say the current "top 6" clubs in the country are:

  1. Man City
  2. Man Utd
  3. Liverpool
  4. Chelsea
  5. Spurs
  6. Leicester
Recent success has put Leicester infront of Arsenal. They also have a far superior manager. Next season will be Leicester's 2nd CL campaign in 4 seasons. This season will be the 4th consecutive that Arsenal have missed out on the Top 4.

In terms of being a "big" club, Arsenal and Everton are clearly way above Leicester, but currently, they are behind both Leicester and Wolves considerably.

Why can't we break that mould and become that 10th top club with the ones i've mentioned?
 
mattbianco1 said:
Exactly.

I know Leicester won the league, but by doing that, it has propelled them into one of the top clubs in the country. I feel that persistent challenging the top 6 and a couple of European campaigns would certainly help to establish us as at least a top 8-10 club in the country.

The Leicester season was a freak occurrence and one that probably won't happen again, but a top 4 finish isn't beyond the realms of possibility, as we've proved this season.

In no particular order, i'd say the current "top 6" clubs in the country are:

  1. Man City
  2. Man Utd
  3. Liverpool
  4. Chelsea
  5. Spurs
  6. Leicester
Recent success has put Leicester infront of Arsenal. They also have a far superior manager. Next season will be Leicester's 2nd CL campaign in 4 seasons. This season will be the 4th consecutive that Arsenal have missed out on the Top 4.

In terms of being a "big" club, Arsenal and Everton are clearly way above Leicester, but currently, they are behind both Leicester and Wolves considerably.

Why can't we break that mould and become that 10th top club with the ones i've mentioned?
Click to expand...

Firstly, as a Leicester fan, let me add a few pointers.


1. We are certainly not guaranteed Champions League football for next season. I fear we may be reliant on Man City's ban being upheld as currently I can only see us holding onto 5th position at best. That's the problem with a exceptionally exciting young squad.....Consistency.

2. Leicester are backed by one of the wealthiest owners/consortiums in the league. This is often overlooked. Leicester were able to 'bridge the gap' quicker recently, because they have been able to keep their players under their terms. Ever since Kante departed for a disappointing fee because of a clause in his contract, Mahrez/Maguire have been sold on only once Leicester's demands were met.

3. Leicester have been one of the best sides at recruitment in the country over the past 5-8 years. Vardy/Kante/Mahrez/Ndidi/Soyuncu/Tielemans/Maddison etc etc, it's no fluke. It's the result of having a very extensive scouting system which continually reaps rewards.


Wilder needs help if Sheffield United are to become that '10th top club'.

For all the discredit Burnley have been given in this thread, Dyche has done a job there at this level for the last 4 seasons that Wilder has only done for 1.....
Whilst spending significantly less too.
 
thawot said:
You seemed to be making the point that our challenging the top six was as impossible as a small club sustaining a top flight berth, but that happens semi-regularly.

It might be unlikely but it's not completely beyond us to challenge the top six.
Click to expand...
They don’t sustain it though, they have a period where they do well and then revert to type. We may challenge for the top six, we may even get in it for a season or a couple but we’re never going to be Man U unless we get a seriously rich owner (and even that has become harder with FFP).
We have one of the lowest budgets in the PL. And even with Covid, we will still have one of the lowest budgets in the PL. We’re already punching about our weight. There’s a limit to how much more we can do that.
Over the long term, we will not become a member of the top six. Just like the other clubs that have briefly appeared at the top end of the table, like Southampton or Burnley. No club will. Not even Leicester.

Man U’s income is around £550m a season

Business Model

We operate and manage our business as a single reporting segment – the operation of a professional sports team. We review our revenue through three principal sectors – Commercial, Broadcasting and Matchday.
ir.manutd.com ir.manutd.com

We will never be able to compete with that in the long term. Or with the other five.


Wimbledon were relegated about 20 years ago, as the PL tv money started to make a difference. Wigan managed eight years in the PL with Whelan’s money and didn’t really trouble the top six during that period. So, yes, in theory Rotherham could get in the PL and maybe stay there for a couple of seasons but they won’t ever be permanent, which is what I said.
 
BushBlade said:
We will never be able to compete with that in the long term. Or with the other five.
Click to expand...

Could have said the same thing about Manchester City ten years ago. Or Chelsea ten years before that. Or Nottingham Forest Fifteen years before that.
Could have said fifteen years ago that we'd never compete with a top 6 club like Leeds. Or three years ago that we'll never compete with a top 6 club like Arsenal.
But here we are.
 

thawot said:
Could have said the same thing about Manchester City ten years ago. Or Chelsea ten years before that. Or Nottingham Forest Fifteen years before that.
Could have said fifteen years ago that we'd never compete with a top 6 club like Leeds. Or three years ago that we'll never compete with a top 6 club like Arsenal.
But here we are.
Click to expand...
But Man City and Chelsea had rich owners who spent a lot of money to get them where they are. In Chelsea’s case it was pre-FFP so they could spend what they wanted to. In Man City’s case they spent what they wanted and are now facing a ban from European football because of FFP.

And having a rich owner is something I specifically referred to in my previous post; ‘we’re never going to be Man U unless we get a seriously rich owner (and even that has become harder with FFP).’

Because of the changes in the landscape of football over the past ten or so years, whereby the top six have become global brands who attract huge sponsorship deals you can’t look at what happened thirty years ago and think the same will happen now. It’s like saying because Preston won the league in 1890 there’s no reason why they can’t win it in a couple of years time.

Arsenal will just spend more money and get back into the top six.
 
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