European qualification

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thawot

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Here are the current standings:

PosTeamPldGDPts
7Tottenham31945
8Sheff Utd31-144
9Arsenal31243


Correct me if I'm wrong in any of this, but here's how I see European qualification panning out.

After Sunday I think it's fair to say that it's unlikely Arsenal will win the FA Cup (other remaining semi-finalists are Man Utd, Man City and Liverpool). In that case...

If Man City's ban is upheld, 8th place would qualify for Europe.
If Man City's ban is not upheld, 7th place would qualify for Europe.

Given the current standings, what this means for us is...

If Man City's ban is upheld, we need to match Arsenal for points over the next 7 games - Doable IMHO.
If Man City's ban is not upheld, we'd need to make two points on Spurs over the next 7 games - A big ask. We'd need to win on Thursday for sure.

As it stands:
1st: Champions League qualification
2nd: Champions League qualification
3rd: Champions League qualification
4th: Champions League qualification
5th: Europa League qualification
6th: Europa Conference qualification (because League Cup winners already qualified)

Should Arsenal NOT win the FA Cup:
1st: Champions League qualification
2nd: Champions League qualification
3rd: Champions League qualification
4th: Champions League qualification
5th: Europa League qualification
6th: Europa League qualification (because FA Cup winners already qualified
7th: Europa Conference qualification (because League Cup winners already qualified)

Should Man City's disqualification be upheld:
1st: Champions League qualification
2nd: ---
3rd: Champions League qualification
4th: Champions League qualification
5th: Champions League qualification
6th: Europa League qualification
7th: Europa Conference (because League Cup winners already qualified)

Should Man City's disqualification be upheld, and Arsenal NOT win the FA Cup:
1st: Champions League qualification
2nd: ---
3rd: Champions League qualification
4th: Champions League qualification
5th: Champions League qualification
6th: Europa League qualification
7th: Europa League qualification (because FA Cup winners already qualified)
8th: Europa Conference (because League Cup winners already qualified)

A few assumptions:
1) Catching the top 6 is now out of the question. I think we've blown that chance this year. Man Utd and Wolves will crack on. Leicester will probably drop but not as far as 7th.
2) If we can keep up with Arsenal, Palace and Burnley probably won't catch us.
3) Man City won't with the Champs League this year. Not sure if this would result in an extra place being added or not.
 

BigBed said:
Give it up pal, we aren't going to make it unfortunately.
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Yeah, to be honest I think it's more likely we'll end up in 9th come the end of the season (and that will be some achievement), but it's not completely impossible that we match Arsenals results for the next 7 games. We've bettered them for the first 31 games, and matched them on the field three times.
 
Didn't think the Europa League 2 thing started until 2021?

European spots could go down to 9th this season if Man City lose their appeal and Wolves or Man U finish outside of the top 5 but win the Europa League.

As for Burnley, they could go above us today, as could Palace.

We still have to play teams above us, we would overtake Tottenham if we win on Thursday, and we've to play Wolves, and Leicester, so there are opportunities but we can't really afford bad results now.
 
If its not Champions League, they can fuck it ......... dont need the Europa at all
 
What happens if Man Utd or Wolves with the UEFA cup and therefore qualify for the Champions League? If they do that and finish in the CL qualification places do we lose that extra place?
 
bromtom said:
Didn't think the Europa League 2 thing started until 2021?

European spots could go down to 9th this season if Man City lose their appeal and Wolves or Man U finish outside of the top 5 but win the Europa League.

As for Burnley, they could go above us today, as could Palace.

We still have to play teams above us, we would overtake Tottenham if we win on Thursday, and we've to play Wolves, and Leicester, so there are opportunities but we can't really afford bad results now.
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Yeah, I've tried to not include anything too optimistic. It's all about matching Arsenal for me. They have Wolves, Spurs and Liverpool to play which I can't see them getting anything from. We can take losses at Spurs and Wolves, we'd need something against Leicester who are lacking form ATM.
 
bromtom said:
Didn't think the Europa League 2 thing started until 2021?
Click to expand...

Aye, you're right, will just be regular Europa League this season. Doesn't really change the positions though.
 
Flatulent_Bob said:
What happens if Man Utd or Wolves with the UEFA cup and therefore qualify for the Champions League? If they do that and finish in the CL qualification places do we lose that extra place?
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I think we don't get an extra slot in that case but I'm not 100% sure. Anyone know?
 
If we don't qualify we could join forces with the pigs and start our own European Super League, they'll be a bit lonely if we don't.
 
thawot said:
I think we don't get an extra slot in that case but I'm not 100% sure. Anyone know?
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I don’t think there is an extra slot. As far as I’m aware no country can have more than seven teams in Europe. That, as I recall, was what happened when Man U won the Europa League. Five teams went into the CL and two into the Europa.
 

thawot said:
I think we don't get an extra slot in that case but I'm not 100% sure. Anyone know?
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BushBlade said:
I don’t think there is an extra slot. As far as I’m aware no country can have more than seven teams in Europe. That, as I recall, was what happened when Man U won the Europa League. Five teams went into the CL and two into the Europa.
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There are a maximum of 5 Champions League spots and 3 Europa League spots.

The 5 CL spots only applies if a team outside the top 4 wins the Europa League and therefore qualifies for the Champions League, which is a possibility this season with Wolves and Man U still in the Europa.

If Man City get DQd that obviously bumps CL down one place.
 
Ooo it’s all doom and gloom! Very defeatist!
4 wins from our last 7 games and Napoli is back on! 👍
 
Davalon said:
It's about not finishing in demoralising fashion and preparing for next season.

Europe isn't happening.
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It might not, but if you think finishing above arsenal is impossible when we're a point in front and they've got to play wolves, spurs and liverpool, all I can say is I'm glad you're not doing the half time team talks 😁
 
It’s good to be positive but we could easily finish 14th. We need to get our own house in order before we even contemplate a top half finish never mind Europe, the lockdown period has really set us back both physically and mentally.
 
derekacorah said:
If we don't qualify we could join forces with the pigs and start our own European Super League, they'll be a bit lonely if we don't.
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They'll be playing Europe anyway when their points deduction happens - League game away at Newport County
 
wizadry said:
It’s good to be positive but we could easily finish 14th. We need to get our own house in order before we even contemplate a top half finish never mind Europe, the lockdown period has really set us back both physically and mentally.
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True but we looked much more on it yesterday. I'm actually looking forward to Thursday now rather than dreading it.
 
thawot said:
True but we looked much more on it yesterday. I'm actually looking forward to Thursday now rather than dreading it.
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We certainly looked better but let’s be honest, we couldn’t look much worse. 😁
 
thawot said:
It might not, but if you think finishing above arsenal is impossible when we're a point in front and they've got to play wolves, spurs and liverpool, all I can say is I'm glad you're not doing the half time team talks 😁
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Why is it all about Arsenal?

Why is thinking European qualification isn't going to happen when we have Chelsea, Spurs, Wolves, Everton, and Leicester to play overly negative?
 
bromtom said:
There are a maximum of 5 Champions League spots and 3 Europa League spots.

The 5 CL spots only applies if a team outside the top 4 wins the Europa League and therefore qualifies for the Champions League, which is a possibility this season with Wolves and Man U still in the Europa.

If Man City get DQd that obviously bumps CL down one place.
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Have you got something to support this? Nothing I’ve read actually confirms it. This is the closest but they’re saying we could have nine

www.bbc.co.uk

Who will qualify for Europe in various scenarios?

BBC Sport looks at what happens to England's European places depending on how their teams do in this season's tournaments.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk

I’m not convinced. Although UEFA seem to change the criteria frequently.
 
Davalon said:
Why is it all about Arsenal?

Why is thinking European qualification isn't going to happen when we have Chelsea, Spurs, Wolves, Everton, and Leicester to play overly negative?
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Not only Arsenal but Palace, Burnley, Everton, Southampton and Newcastle could overtake both us and Arsenal quite easily.

How times have changed, not long back we were looking at a serious challenge for 4th spot and now we’re looking over our shoulder, you can’t take your foot off the gas or eye off the ball for one second in this league, you could suddenly become overwhelmed.
 

Davalon said:
Why is it all about Arsenal?

Why is thinking European qualification isn't going to happen when we have Chelsea, Spurs, Wolves, Everton, and Leicester to play overly negative?
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It's about Arsenal because as long as they don't win the FA Cup, we'll need to finish 7th to get Europa League. We are currently 7th and Arsenal 8th so it becomes a case of staying above them until the end of the season to qualify.

Thinking it isn't going to happen is fine. I'd personally agree given how we've restarted, but suggesting we should just give up when in all likelihood all we've got to do is match a team we've been above all season is exceptionally defeatest.
 
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