Are we safe yet Dad?

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TCsLoveChild

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I know I know, of course we are not but given we are on 22 points after just 16 games I thought I would check the average number of points needed to avoid relegation "since the league was cut to 20 teams in 1995/96, the average points required to avoid the drop has been much lower than 40. Over the past 23 seasons, the 18th-placed team, the highest to go down, have averaged 35.6 points.16 Apr 2019 " In the last 5 years only once have you needed more than 35 points (Newcastle with 37 went down in 2015/16). So we "probably" only need another 14-16 points from the remaining 22 games to be safe, so less than 0.73 points per game. or about 5 more wins. I've been watching us since 1971 so I have every right to be cautious/pessimistic but I'm going to nail my colours to the mast.......I think we are safe 😲 UTB
 

There's no cannon fodder teams this year tho, teams are clearly capable of beating anyone on their day, which gives the impression that the points required for safety this season will be higher than the average.

Given, we went down with 38 last time. I'll not be fist pumping until we've gone past 40 and I suspect Tufty will be the same.

Lets not get too far ahead of ourselves....step by step
 
If we only get 14 more points, we'll be playing in the Championship next season. But we'll get more than 14 more points.
 
There's no cannon fodder teams this year tho, teams are clearly capable of beating anyone on their day, which gives the impression that the points required for safety this season will be higher than the average.

Given, we went down with 38 last time. I'll not be fist pumping until we've gone past 40 and I suspect Tufty will be the same.

Lets not get too far ahead of ourselves....step by step
There are presently 4 teams averaging less than 1 point per game which over the season would give them <38 points.

I see no signs that at least two of them are going to go on a storming run and increase the average return that they have over the course of 16 games.
 
There's no cannon fodder teams this year tho, teams are clearly capable of beating anyone on their day, which gives the impression that the points required for safety this season will be higher than the average.

Given, we went down with 38 last time. I'll not be fist pumping until we've gone past 40 and I suspect Tufty will be the same.

Lets not get too far ahead of ourselves....step by step

Can't see Tufty fist pumping when past 40 points. He has higher ambitions than just settling for safety. He has said himself, he wants as many points as possible and he'll see where we end up.
 

Can't see Tufty fist pumping when past 40 points. He has higher ambitions than just settling for safety. He has said himself, he wants as many points as possible and he'll see where we end up.
Of course he has,.... but that has to be the first aim
 
There are presently 4 teams averaging less than 1 point per game which over the season would give them <38 points.

I see no signs that at least two of them are going to go on a storming run and increase the average return that they have over the course of 16 games.

If we had lost yesterday we would be sitting in 9th, 4 points off a relegation place...the margins are that tight...There wasn't too many envisaging a West ham resurgence a few years ago
 
I suspect the biggest and only threat to Utd's survival would be long term injuries to several key players - Henderson, Egan, JOC, Fleck, McGoldrick, Mousset
 
If we had lost yesterday we would be sitting in 9th, 4 points off a relegation place...the margins are that tight...There wasn't too many envisaging a West ham resurgence a few years ago
One resurgence wouldn't trouble the 38 point threshold.

There's also another team averaging exactly 1 point per game so two resurgences wouldn't be too much of an issue either.

I'm not saying that we are safe because with only 22 points we're obviously not, what I'm trying to ascertain is why people think 38 points is suddenly not going to be enough.

I get this any team can beat any other on any given day but when that happens one team also picks up no, nil, zero points towards their 38 point haul.

I will be interested to revisit this thread at the end of the season to see just how many resurgences have lifted the points required to >39
 
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Thinking maybe 42pts this year never been so tight and a big set of games coming up man city liverpool in same week or so lose them both be melt down on here
 
Not this (again!)
We haven't had a bad run, injuries or players ruled our through suspension yet!
I'll feel better if we manage to get thro Dec/Jan in a similar position to what we are now
Until we get 40 points were not safe
Don't count your chickens lads n lasses
 
Safe? Not yet!
Will we stay up? Most definitely 👍
Loving our time in The Prem and will for many more seasons.
 
If any team can fuck it up .........

Normally agree.....but I think the football Gods are scared of the wrath of Chris Wilder.
Agree with Ricky.....the win at the weekend was massive....
at the end of the season think we’ll look back to that Norwich game and say that’s where we sealed safety.
If we had lost to Norwich yesterday...our confidence would have suffered a massI’ve blow and we could have been sucked towards the chasing relegation pack.
Now we approach the Villa home game with a nice cushion...where as for Villa it’s a big pressure game.
 
This period between now and Boxing day is pretty important, if we can take at least 6pts from Villa, Brighton and Watford, then it'll go a long way towards securing safety and also in February and March where there are plenty of winnable games that should hopefully see us through (he says)
 
Yep, as above, we need to give everything in the next three, as we’ve got city and Liverpool on the horizon where I can’t see us taking any points..

However, if Newcastle can get a result at city?

We’d need a real disaster to go down, mid table finish looks more likely, we have the players and are where we are on merit, at this point of the season nobody is in a fluke position.
 

lots of sides around the bottom playing each other in the next few weeks. A win over villa + Watford and a point at brighton would really give us some breathing space
 

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