Why The Blades will finish in the top two

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The Bohemian

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Many supporters will see 6th position after 13 games as a disappointing start to a season where expectations were set understandably high, following last season's dramatic improvement, after Cloughie took charge.

Conscious, always, of my tendency towards optimism where the Blades are concerned, I still believe the evidence of the season, so far, points to The Blades finishing in an automatic promotion place and battling it out with Bristol City for the DIv 3 title.

Cloughie made seismic changes to his squad during the close season - some enforced, some not. The result of these changes was that the team that started the season against Bristol, contained only 4 players that started the final game of last season (Howard, Flynn, Scougall and Murphy). Most notably, the team kicked-off in August with an entirely new back four, including a central defensive partnership, consisting of an 18 year-old with 6 league appearances to his name and a right back being played out of position. The club captain was dropped and replaced by a talented but inexperienced and physically developing 17 year old. Unsurprisingly the team looked disjointed and vulnerable, losing its first two games.

To his credit, Cloughie acknowledged the problems he had inflicted on his team and restored Collins and Doyle for the Peterborough game, which provided a much needed win.

If we take the view that the season effectively started for The Blades at Peterborough, by which time Cloughie had learned some important lessons and got his close season hysteria out of his system, an interesting picture emerges.

In 11 league games since the defeat at Coventry the Blades have gained 23 points from 11 league games. If they continue to acquire points at this ratio they will finish the season on 92 points - a points total that has equated to a top two League One finish in 8 out of the past 10 seasons.

The most significant aspect of the season so far is the team's performance levels, which Cloughie and a large majority of supporters perceive as inconsistent and generally underwhelming (I have seen 8 league games and witnessed only one dominant 90 minute performance, against Gillingham). So, every reason to believe the team can and should improve, as a group of new players become accustomed to each other and Cloughie works out what his best 11 looks like.

Indicators of a team starting to find its rhythm are clean sheets: 4 so far this season of which 2 have been achieved in the last two games, and goals scored: 6 in the first six games; 15 in the last seven games.

What's more, The Blades have been deprived of key players through injury during the early part of the season, with Scougall, Baxter and Wallace missing or playing with niggles at various stages. Indeed, it could be argued that Cloughie has yet to have his best 11, fully fit and available for selection.

The data suggests a team making steady and significant improvement in a league which looks there for the taking (irrespective of Cloughie's protestations to the contrary).

Unlike last season, when the squad looked threadbare and vulnerable to the loss of a key player or two, this season's group confers good cover options in most positions, with the possible exception of central striker.

There are still problems to be addressed: Cloughie is still, evidently, unconvinced about the central defenders at his disposal and replacing Harry has proved to be every bit as difficult as expected. But there are also exciting new possibilities, with the emergence of McNulty as a possible 20 goal striker and Louis Reed, who to my eyes looks to be the most promising midfield prospect to emerge from the Academy to date. We've seen relatively little of James Wallace, but what we have seen has oozed class and composure.

Of course, the unexpected can happen and it would be foolhardy to suggest promotion was nailed on. However, based on evidence so far, I expect The Blades to finish the season with a similar or better points per games ratio as that achieved since the Coventry defeat, and this should ensure a top two finish.

For those who like a bet, you can still get 10/1 against The Blades winning promotion. I reckon that's a knocking good price and one which will only contract from this point on.

UTB!
 

Please explain to someone who has never placed a bet - online or otherwise - how I get 10-1 for United not getting promotion - as usual.
That is a more worthwhile exercise for us all!
Thanks in anticipation of a windfall.
 
I've maintained for a while that we are a couple of good strikers short of a very good team. However, those resources don't come cheap.
To achieve what you are stating we need more fire power. Goals change games and whilst we have picked up in recent games we should be whacking some teams in this league by 4 or 5 - like our rivals seem to do from time to time. If we do that then I agree a top two finish is achievable. Without that additional goal threat we will remain vulnerable and may just fall short of automatic promotion.
 
Please explain to someone who has never placed a bet - online or otherwise - how I get 10-1 for United not getting promotion - as usual.
That is a more worthwhile exercise for us all!
Thanks in anticipation of a windfall.

OK, OK, it's getting late: The Blades are currently 10/1 to win the League One title; each way = 1/4 the odds on 3 places, i.e. top 2 and play-off winner.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1
 
Great post. It's what I think/hope this season might mean for us. I connect with everything you've said.... Just hope you're right and Cloughie is as good as you everyone else seems to believe.
Whatever happens, should be an interesting season. I am in the school that believes we should not fail to get promotion this season. If we do fail, I think it will largely be Clough's responsibility.
 
Nice post by Bohemian, well thought out and well reasoned. We have adequate cover through the middle of the park, Davies, JCR, Murphy and Flynn can all play out wide, Doyle, Reed, Wallace and Baxter can all play down the middie of the field. McNulty is shaping up nicely. One goal every two games, to the end of the season, makes him our 20+ goals man. Howard is first choice in net so we need a settled back four, one that acts as a cohesive unit and builds a run of clean sheets to give confidence to the rest of the team that, no matter what else happens, we won't ship goals lads, so you just go out and attack, attack, attack.

Personally, I want a fit Wallace in the middle, because apart from his obvious footballing skills, he gives us some height in the centre of the park. No point Howard goal kicking like the Yeovil game the other night, when we have no one over about 5ft 9 in the middle of the field to get a head on the ball.

If Higdon can get a little fitter (he already has that Darius Henderson height and build), to come on alongside McNulty, as opposition defence tires, and give us a "tough nut" front to a 4-4-2 finish (McNulty is very strong for his size, can hold defenders off, and never knocked off the ball), then we can and should, batter some teams.
 
The Bohemian fantastic post.

The winter months will separate the men from the boys. Our squad has depth to it. For me its a settled back four required.

We've won the last 2 games comfortable without Wallace in the team. Baxter only started at Bradford. Flynn only came in off the bench. This shows our depth.

We now need to take points off the teams around us which so far we have done (Preston/Peterborough) Bristol City apart.

We'll see where we are come New Years day.
 
For those who like a bet, you can still get 10/1 against The Blades winning promotion. I reckon that's a knocking good price and one which will only contract from this point on.

You are wrong.

10/1 is the price available for United to finish top of League One. We are just 9/4 to be promoted and 8/15 to finish in the top six.
 
Excellent post The Bohemian I’m in agreement on the general sentiment o your post and you may be aware that I tend to lean towards the positive. Thirteen games in, with a game in hand on the top two, we could be forgiven for being positive and the drama that greeted the fulltime whistle following games against Bristol City, Coventry and Swindon could be brushed away as against the norm.

I’m entirely in agreement that the sheer number of changes to the squad over the summer has been a real issue and it goes a long way to excuse some of the results, with fewer summer changes, we might’ve been sat higher up the table than where we are. The squad has been unsettled because of the changes, but I think this is for the long term benefit. The squad we now have is probably the biggest in the division and with no real superstars we could perhaps also feel fairly comfortable that most positions are doubled up. We’re in a good position now in terms of the squad, overall.
The problem I see is the inconsistency. Some of this is attributable to the changes, but I think Clough has tinkered more than he did last season. He’s perhaps been a little too eager to find that ‘perfect 11’. Last season he found a steady side, stuck with it and his starting 11 was the 11 he wanted to end with. Sure we had a smaller and (in many positions) less capable squad, but what I liked last season was his best starting 11 was the 11 he wanted to finish with. That would also be the side he started the next game with. Changes came through fatigued players or a tactical change. This season he’s seemed to be more relaxed in changing players out and have we even seen the same team twice? I’m slightly concerned that he’s chopping and changing too much to please fringe players and give them their chance too.
The indicators that you mention should be taken with a pinch of salt. We’ve scored more recently, but we’ve shipped a lot, the last two games apart. The teams we’ve played are also a factor. Tough games in August and September with the unsettled side were always going to be cagey games, more recently we’ve ended up chasing games and whilst scoring more goals, defensively we’ve been weak at times. I think this has been the biggest failing so far this season, not sorting the defence quickly enough. We know the midfield had goals in it from last season, but the back four was brand new this summer. We should’ve paid more attention to the back four and I’m inclined to think that we could’ve stuck with the counter attack mentality which worked so well last season, but again is Clough trying to change too much in terms of squad and tactics, allowing for a slow start, to get the side firing by Christmas and then really kicking on? Only time will tell.

My personal appraisal from the limited games I’ve seen and the info I’ve picked up is that we’ve managed to keep in touch, with the top two, without pulling any trees up. So in many ways, we’ve played within ourselves.

Big thing now is ensuring that the back four becomes solid and build on the clean sheets. Become a side that doesn’t lose. Get an unbeaten run going. We need to stick with the best back four we have and get that communication working. If Basham is to stay at the back, give him games.

The midfield and strikers seem to be now getting goals, more will come. Baxter, McNults and Higdon all have goals in them, but Murphy, JCR and Scoogs when they’re in form.

Quarter of the season gone, we’re in a good position.
 
Many supporters will see 6th position after 13 games as a disappointing start to a season where expectations were set understandably high, following last season's dramatic improvement, after Cloughie took charge.

Conscious, always, of my tendency towards optimism where the Blades are concerned, I still believe the evidence of the season, so far, points to The Blades finishing in an automatic promotion place and battling it out with Bristol City for the DIv 3 title.

Cloughie made seismic changes to his squad during the close season - some enforced, some not. The result of these changes was that the team that started the season against Bristol, contained only 4 players that started the final game of last season (Howard, Flynn, Scougall and Murphy). Most notably, the team kicked-off in August with an entirely new back four, including a central defensive partnership, consisting of an 18 year-old with 6 league appearances to his name and a right back being played out of position. The club captain was dropped and replaced by a talented but inexperienced and physically developing 17 year old. Unsurprisingly the team looked disjointed and vulnerable, losing its first two games.

To his credit, Cloughie acknowledged the problems he had inflicted on his team and restored Collins and Doyle for the Peterborough game, which provided a much needed win.

If we take the view that the season effectively started for The Blades at Peterborough, by which time Cloughie had learned some important lessons and got his close season hysteria out of his system, an interesting picture emerges.

In 11 league games since the defeat at Coventry the Blades have gained 23 points from 11 league games. If they continue to acquire points at this ratio they will finish the season on 92 points - a points total that has equated to a top two League One finish in 8 out of the past 10 seasons.

The most significant aspect of the season so far is the team's performance levels, which Cloughie and a large majority of supporters perceive as inconsistent and generally underwhelming (I have seen 8 league games and witnessed only one dominant 90 minute performance, against Gillingham). So, every reason to believe the team can and should improve, as a group of new players become accustomed to each other and Cloughie works out what his best 11 looks like.

Indicators of a team starting to find its rhythm are clean sheets: 4 so far this season of which 2 have been achieved in the last two games, and goals scored: 6 in the first six games; 15 in the last seven games.

What's more, The Blades have been deprived of key players through injury during the early part of the season, with Scougall, Baxter and Wallace missing or playing with niggles at various stages. Indeed, it could be argued that Cloughie has yet to have his best 11, fully fit and available for selection.

The data suggests a team making steady and significant improvement in a league which looks there for the taking (irrespective of Cloughie's protestations to the contrary).

Unlike last season, when the squad looked threadbare and vulnerable to the loss of a key player or two, this season's group confers good cover options in most positions, with the possible exception of central striker.

There are still problems to be addressed: Cloughie is still, evidently, unconvinced about the central defenders at his disposal and replacing Harry has proved to be every bit as difficult as expected. But there are also exciting new possibilities, with the emergence of McNulty as a possible 20 goal striker and Louis Reed, who to my eyes looks to be the most promising midfield prospect to emerge from the Academy to date. We've seen relatively little of James Wallace, but what we have seen has oozed class and composure.

Of course, the unexpected can happen and it would be foolhardy to suggest promotion was nailed on. However, based on evidence so far, I expect The Blades to finish the season with a similar or better points per games ratio as that achieved since the Coventry defeat, and this should ensure a top two finish.

For those who like a bet, you can still get 10/1 against The Blades winning promotion. I reckon that's a knocking good price and one which will only contract from this point on.

UTB!

good post mate, some great observations made.

personally I cant see us getting automatic promotion at the moment. We have had two clean sheets of late which is much needed, but the other teams were unlucky not to score and we have shipped goals before that. we badly need a settled back four.

we are scoring more goals than I expected us to tho, and I really hope mcnulty and or higdon score hatfuls for us. the acid test will be in games against the better teams like mk dons, Swindon, Bristol city etc. we are doing ok in 6th but for me need a big improvement to get automatic promotion at present.

as for injuries, they will always happen to every team so we need to deal with it better than others, but our squad is decent youre right.

lots to be positive about for sure UTB!
 

Excellent post The Bohemian I’m in agreement on the general sentiment o your post and you may be aware that I tend to lean towards the positive. Thirteen games in, with a game in hand on the top two, we could be forgiven for being positive and the drama that greeted the fulltime whistle following games against Bristol City, Coventry and Swindon could be brushed away as against the norm.

I’m entirely in agreement that the sheer number of changes to the squad over the summer has been a real issue and it goes a long way to excuse some of the results, with fewer summer changes, we might’ve been sat higher up the table than where we are. The squad has been unsettled because of the changes, but I think this is for the long term benefit. The squad we now have is probably the biggest in the division and with no real superstars we could perhaps also feel fairly comfortable that most positions are doubled up. We’re in a good position now in terms of the squad, overall.
The problem I see is the inconsistency. Some of this is attributable to the changes, but I think Clough has tinkered more than he did last season. He’s perhaps been a little too eager to find that ‘perfect 11’. Last season he found a steady side, stuck with it and his starting 11 was the 11 he wanted to end with. Sure we had a smaller and (in many positions) less capable squad, but what I liked last season was his best starting 11 was the 11 he wanted to finish with. That would also be the side he started the next game with. Changes came through fatigued players or a tactical change. This season he’s seemed to be more relaxed in changing players out and have we even seen the same team twice? I’m slightly concerned that he’s chopping and changing too much to please fringe players and give them their chance too.
The indicators that you mention should be taken with a pinch of salt. We’ve scored more recently, but we’ve shipped a lot, the last two games apart. The teams we’ve played are also a factor. Tough games in August and September with the unsettled side were always going to be cagey games, more recently we’ve ended up chasing games and whilst scoring more goals, defensively we’ve been weak at times. I think this has been the biggest failing so far this season, not sorting the defence quickly enough. We know the midfield had goals in it from last season, but the back four was brand new this summer. We should’ve paid more attention to the back four and I’m inclined to think that we could’ve stuck with the counter attack mentality which worked so well last season, but again is Clough trying to change too much in terms of squad and tactics, allowing for a slow start, to get the side firing by Christmas and then really kicking on? Only time will tell.

My personal appraisal from the limited games I’ve seen and the info I’ve picked up is that we’ve managed to keep in touch, with the top two, without pulling any trees up. So in many ways, we’ve played within ourselves.

Big thing now is ensuring that the back four becomes solid and build on the clean sheets. Become a side that doesn’t lose. Get an unbeaten run going. We need to stick with the best back four we have and get that communication working. If Basham is to stay at the back, give him games.

The midfield and strikers seem to be now getting goals, more will come. Baxter, McNults and Higdon all have goals in them, but Murphy, JCR and Scoogs when they’re in form.

Quarter of the season gone, we’re in a good position.
The 2no posts from The Bohemian and Swissblade are excellent . They put in to words , perhaps how we all feel and think of the season so for. The blades are still in 3rd gear which Mr Clough will sort out. We are inconsistent and seem always within the space of 90 minutes to be

Fantastic or rubbish

Confident or nervous

Good or tepid.

Make the right or wrong decisions ( pass , losing the ball , what to do )

My only concern is that , do we have the players of mental strength to over come this , and what we get now is the benchmark until the end of the season.

The performance tomorrow will either again be a mixed bag or a solid performance. At the end of the day who really cares , as long as we continue to get 3 points ,and automatic promotion.

UTB
 
I can see the headline in the Star now:

Outbreak of optimism on Blades forum shock

With you all the way UTB
 
Ive no0t read all the comments but i think as we have maybe a better in depth squad than many in the league i think we will be challenging come the end of the season.
The crux will be january. we MUST NOT sell any talent in the squad & get in the required players to get us over the finish line.
 
I think we have a good squad but we are a couple of strikers and maybe a central midfielder short of making the top 2.
 
Still need another striker to challenge the top two.

Bristol may run out of steam though.
 
Revolution. apparent here at Gresty Road . If he brings on McNulty or Higdon or both we will win .

UTB
 
Strikers win games not sure why you would drop McNuts.
 
We are inconsistent and seem always within the space of 90 minutes to be

Fantastic or rubbish

Confident or nervous

Good or tepid.

Make the right or wrong decisions ( pass , losing the ball , what to do )

And...that sums up just about every team out there. Been chillin' this afternoon, just watching Final Score and it amazes me that some people think the joys and disappointments of football apply only to United. So 'we always sell our best players'. Ask Southampton fans. Brighton (Ulloa), Spurs, Liverpool, Man U. I'll exclude Wendy from that as they never have anybody worth selling. Chris Brunt about 6 years ago? Talking of the delusionals, seems Gray's honeymoon period is well and truly over. They go on about 'Gary Taylor-Fletcher, 'J-J', 'RR', fuck they really do think they're a big club!

Could be worse. Could be Birmingham.
 
Love your enthusiasm the bohemian. I am wondering what will happen but I am constantly struck by the team`s unpredictability coupled with inconsistency. I have yet to see an entertaining performance so far, so if promotion is achieved it may be the dullest united team to win a promotion in my lifetime. Another happy first.
 
I was surprised Mcnulty was dropped. However apparently we dominated and should have won 5-0 so.......
 

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