E Ratings League One prediction

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Enigmatic

Enigmatic

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https://experimental361.com/2016/09/25/e-ratings-update-league-1-25-sep-2016/

Interesting analysis for those interested. Puts us down, as of last Sunday, to finish 4th. It's interesting to see that it uses chances created and given away as a long run indicator of success. I would imagine there are many other factors involved in turning those chances into goals and preventing them, but it's an interesting article nonetheless.
 

I follow this guy on twitter, usually an interesting read. I read this article the other day, and my bone of contention was that, after 10 games, how can you give a team (Bradford) over a 50% chance of automatic promotion? Let's see what the table looks like on 31/12/16, then you have a better chance of predicting things.
 
Interesting concept. Measuring the number and quality of chances created and conceded is a better basis to predict long term results than looking at more basic stats, as well as short term results - certainly games won by a small margin. It's similar when it comes to individual players, chances created should always be put ahead of assists for example. Professional clubs will certainly be placing more emphasis on that sort of thing, especially with the facilities now widely available to assist with such analysis.

But knowledge and judgement also have to come into it. It's on that basis I'm confident Bradford won't be in the top two, Peterborough will be higher than 14th and Vale higher than 21st. And there's no solid statistical basis for that judgement in most cases.
 
Enigmatic said:
https://experimental361.com/2016/09/25/e-ratings-update-league-1-25-sep-2016/

Interesting analysis for those interested. Puts us down, as of last Sunday, to finish 4th. It's interesting to see that it uses chances created and given away as a long run indicator of success. I would imagine there are many other factors involved in turning those chances into goals and preventing them, but it's an interesting article nonetheless.
Click to expand...

You reckon it's interesting then.
 
it's all bolocks - we have a different team/formation/attitude/commitment now to the first 4 games.

Did it factor in those sort of things

UTB
 
All well and good but the "luck" factor can't be factored in, or in our case "bad luck" factor. That will impact on all final positions

Add in all external factors such as squad depth, injuries (timing of coinciding with loan window) and suspensions
 
I've heard talk about systems like this, and using different criteria and maths analysis there are some that come up with somewhat accurate results. But the major issue with these things is that the sample size they're working with is tiny. When you do analysis in poker, for instance, you generally need thousands of games, or hundreds of thousand of individual hands, to get good approximations of win rates. Now, football has less variance than that, I'd expect, but even a full season is unlikely to give strong confidence levels, and football is much more prone to changes from team alteration e.g. our results last season can already be deemed irrelevant to measuring the standard of the current first eleven. The team that started against Bolton is already radically different to the one that started vs. Bristol.

His accuracy's probably going to be okayish, but it doesn't take much to guess that we'll be in the top six-eight.
 
Enigmatic said:
https://experimental361.com/2016/09/25/e-ratings-update-league-1-25-sep-2016/

Interesting analysis for those interested. Puts us down, as of last Sunday, to finish 4th. It's interesting to see that it uses chances created and given away as a long run indicator of success. I would imagine there are many other factors involved in turning those chances into goals and preventing them, but it's an interesting article nonetheless.
Click to expand...
Perfect site for geeks, thank fully I'm a geek so I love it.

Seriously though I reckon this could be a very useful information to make some real betting value as you monitor chances and teams played. Would be interesting to see if previous seasons stats could be shown to correlate to final success
 
Followed him last year and, to be fair, he had Wigan before they hit the top and was calling Burton when everybody else was waiting for them to blow it. Barnsley was a bit of a strange one whether you look at statistics or not. He's very accommodating to other ideas of how the data can be improved too if you think there is something key he is missing.
 
If only competitive sport was decided on mathematics.
 
I think it's an interested concept. I don't think anyone is calling it the panacea.

Ultimately, one thing that this statistician can't foresee however is how good a finisher the main striker (s) at a club are. A Jermaine Defoe or Kevin Phillips will convert a higher ratio of chances than a Chris Porter or Connor Sammon.
 
Enigmatic said:
Very interesting. Glad you're interested in my interests.
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What can I say? I'm just interested in what others are interested in!

These things are best used in the immediacy, in my view, for match by match betting. Longer term factors (as mentioned already, suspensions/key injuries) can screw it up over a longer period but going into any given week-end you can find an edge as most bookmakers will base their odds around league table which, on any given week-end, can be completely misleading.
For those not around on here three or four years ago, there was an extremely heated debate on the "League Table vs Other factors" which went on for, what seemed like, weeks!
 

Enigmatic said:
https://experimental361.com/2016/09/25/e-ratings-update-league-1-25-sep-2016/

Interesting analysis for those interested. Puts us down, as of last Sunday, to finish 4th. It's interesting to see that it uses chances created and given away as a long run indicator of success. I would imagine there are many other factors involved in turning those chances into goals and preventing them, but it's an interesting article nonetheless.
Click to expand...
To be honest mate,I find things like this a pile of bobar.
Injuries,New signings managerial sacking ,appointments.
Who would have thought we would only be 3 points off second this time last month?
Take every match day as it comes,it's a funny old game.
 
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