Blades - play off favourites

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The odds will shorten for whichever team drops into third so we'll be second favourites when the playoffs actually start.
 
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Nice sunny morning. Off out to do something interesting.
 
We are currently favourites to win the Play Offs - though the odds may change if Preston drop into 3rd:

Sheffield Utd 9/4
Swindon 3/1
Chesterfield 4/1
MK Dons 4/1
Preston 13/2

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

Had to check the date there to check it wasn't April 1st

not even the ubber-clappers would have us as favourires to win the play offs. The Bookies must be on glue.
 
The odds will shorten for whichever team drops into third so we'll be second favourites when the playoffs actually start.

They're taking bets on MK and PNE, one of which can't come in so yep, as soon as the last auto spot is settled, the other team will go to favs.
 
If you have a bet on, say, MK Dons in that market you're actually backing a double - they fail next Sunday to get in the top two and then they win the play-offs. PNE and MK Dons at those prices represent about 33% of that market which basically means that whichever of the two ends up in the play-offs would be quoted at around 2/1 favourite.

Prices of 2/1, 9/4, 3/1 and 4/1 would represent a 109.1% book or a theoretical profit margin of 9.1%. The bookies will bet to a slightly smaller profit margin than that so you'll certainly get better than 9/4 about United, especially in view of our recent form.
 
Under Clough we've got loads of big game experience and generally on the big Cup occasions we've turned up and performed pretty well. We've even done alright against the better sides in the division and local derbies. I think we're well in the mix regardless of our poor form.

I go with this big game experience against teams in the cup runs. However if we lost in the cup , it would not have been no big deal against the WHU , QPR , Southampton , Charlton etc. It is with the instruction , go out and enjoy your game .

Cup games were nice to have IMO.

I am clinging to the format , of we will show up in the same cup team performances , but it depends on nerves , mental strength and preparation .

We have to come out of the starting blocks in control from the kick off , not after half time.

The play offs are going to be a different ball game , and the season starts now . Its down to Clough and the players to grasp the chance and moment .

If we don't make it ( and we will ) , next season could be a Brentford to bounce back , or if we start messing around on the management front , a Orient , to bounce the other way.

The play offs will be a benchmark , to see how good Clough and the players actually are , with our set up , we have the correct type of football to win and be a success , in these type of knock out competitions .. At home , as a crowd , we will just have to be ultra patient , but our own emotions will come into play.

UTB
 
People maintain that our previous play off record counts for nothing. That our no show in previous finals and our last semi are no indicator of how we might fare with this one.

It seems the opposite view is held about our cup exploits this year - that our cup pedigree will stand us in good stead for these play off games.

Play off matches are very different. In the cup games we were not expected to win when pitted against higher opposition, so the pressure is off and as Eckers states, we can play with more freedom. In the play offs it's an aggregate score over two games for the semi, it's far more tactical and more cagey, so my key concern is still the number of goals we can score.

It's imperative that Done is available and fit for those matches. He is our only natural goal scorer (if McNuts is still all but a bench warmer). He makes stuff happen by forcing mistakes in the opposition defence. Without him I can see the normal pattern of possession high and chances low and getting caught with a sucker punch. We need to be on the front foot from the first leg and get our noses in front as I have no confidence that we will be able to defend a slender lead in a second leg, away from home, dropping ever deeper and inviting the opposition on.

I can see us beating Swindon if we are resolute since they have a dodgy defence. MKD or Preston over two legs? Really not sure we would overcome either of those two - given the height differential and the solid nature of their defences. We will struggle to break them down.

So, Done is the key to our play off success. He is pivotal to our chances of scoring enough goals to prevail. So isn't it a great concern that he seems to be crocked at the critical part of the season. I hope the rest is doing him good and that he can come back firing on all cylinders for us.
 
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In the cup games we were not expected to win when pitted against higher opposition, so the pressure is off and as Eckers states, we can play with more freedom. In the play offs it's an aggregate score over two games for the semi, it's far more tactical and more cagey, so my key concern is still the number of goals we can score.

The Spurs game was over two legs and we showed up to both games

Agree with you about Done. I think I read somewhere that he will be good for one game if he has a painkilling injection but would take 10 days to recover. Anyway he's got until a week on Thursday to get himself fit now. I wouldn't risk him at all against Chesterfield.
 

We are now a best-priced 11/4 with Bet365.

Anybody wanting to take out a bit of insurance can "lay" United - in effect, act as bookie and take a bet on us - at 3.9 on the Betfair Exchange. That 3.9 is the return on the bet including the original stake so it actually equates to odds of 29/10. There is currently £355 looking for a layer which you can take if you want to risk £1029.50 of your own money. If we fail to go up your net profit would be £337.25 after 5% commission.
 
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The down side is you'd feel awful, an get rid of your ill-gotten gains in the pub as soon as you could, which is what happened to me when I bet on us to go down from the prem @25-1. If you bet against the Blades you could well win - but could you take the guilt?
 
Back when we were relegated from the Prem I was working with a stockbroker who also had a penchant for gambling (not sure there's a difference). We both bought shares int Blades a couple of weeks before the end of the season and also had a bet on the Blades being relegated. We worked out that if we stayed up the share price would increase by more than our stake and we'd have made money, and if we went down our winnings from the bet would be more than our loss on the reduced shares price . I made about £500.
 

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