Why Cloughie hasn't blown his budget on a new striker

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The Bohemian

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I am a regular punter on National Hunt racing and manage to operate at a modest profit.


My punting strategy is based on two strands: firstly I look for horses that are proven performers under the conditions (class, distance, going etc.) of the race in question. I also do a statistical analysis of each race and try to profile the kind of horse that is likely to win based on previous winners. For example, if I'm betting on the Champion Hurdle I'll be looking for a horse that's previously finished 1st or 2nd in a Grade 1 race, is aged 6-9 years old and rated 159+. By applying these and a few other rules I am able to significantly improve my chances of finding the next Champion Hurdler.


I've applied a similar approach to the challenge of finding a 20 goal striker, to help propel The Blades out of League One, by analysing all of the strikers who have scored 20 goals or more during the last 5 completed League One seasons.


Firstly, here is the full list of strikers who have scored 20+ goals in League One between 2009-2014:


Sam Baldock

Britt Assomabalonga

Callum Wilson

Kieran Agard

Paddy Madden

Jordan Rhodes

Ched Evans

Brad Wright-Philips (x2)

Stuart Beavon

Craig Mackail-Smith

Glen Murray

Ricky Lambert (x2)

Billy Paynter

Jermaine Beckford

Grant Holt

Lee Barnard

Steve Morison

Matt Fryatt

Simon Cox

Gary Hooper



Before I got too far into the analysis I decided to check the importance of having a 20+ goal striker in winning promotion from League One. Not surprisingly this assumption was confirmed: 8 of the the 19 teams with a 20+ goal striker won promotion in the past 5 seasons. This means a team with a 20+ goal striker is over 3 times more likely to win promotion than one without such an asset.


So if we accept we really need a prolific striker, how do we find him?


There is much debate on this forum and elsewhere, about the assumed need to 'spend big' in order to land the right player. Several posters are frustrated at The Blades's approach to dealings in the transfer market and, in their eyes, the club's failure to invest more heavily in landing a high profile player. So I checked out the evidence to see whether those posters were right in their assessment.



Table 1


Where the future 20+ goal League One striker was signed from

Free agent: 1

Academy: 3

Non-Lge: 3

League Two: 4

League One: 6

Championship: 1

Premier: 2


Table 2


Transfer fee paid for the future 20+ goal League One striker

Academy: 2

Undisclosed: 7

Free: 1

£100k-£200k: 5

£200k-£400k: 3

£1m+: 2


Table 1 reveals that only 3 players were signed from a higher level than League One, including Ched Evans. Eleven of the twenty players came from a club's own Academy or a lower league club, including 3 players from Non-League.


Table 2 shows the relevance of transfer fees. Where fees were paid (in 3 instances non were) they were typically for nominal amounts of less than £200k (this includes an assessment of the 'Undisclosed' fees, which all related to players from League One or below. Of these, only Matty Fryatt and Bradley Wright-Phillips, had a proven goal-scoring record in League One and may have commanded a higher fee than £200k).


Those signed for £200k or less include Ricky Lambert (£200k; Rochdale-Bristol Rovers) and Gary Hooper (£125k; Hereford-Scunthorpe). Others signed for more money who also went on to prove themselves at a higher level include Grant Holt (£400k; Shrewsbury-Norwich) and Glen Murray (£300k; Rochdale-Brighton), proving it is possible to find prolific goalscorers in the lower leagues for modest amounts.


But it is also true to say that those who invested more heavily reaped the rewards, with Britt Assomabalonga (£1.1m; Watford-Peterborough) and Ched Evans (£3m Man City-Blades) taking their teams to within a whisker of promotion.


Next I examined the age profile of the 20+ goalscorers, both in terms of the age when they were signed and the age at which they scored 20+ goals in League One.


The age range of the players listed ,when they were signed ranges from 17-27, with the average being 22. Only 3 of the 20+ goal strikers were over the age of 25 at the time of being signed by their respective clubs.


The age range for when they first scored 20+ League One goals is 21 to 29, with an average age of 25.


This clearly indicates a need to look for young talent and steer clear of strikers nearing the end of their career.


Mindful of Cloughie's declared strategy of trying to sign players with the scope to perform well at a higher level, I decided to scrutinise the performance of the players listed, once they made the step up to the Championship and Premier League. It was in this context that transfer fees seemed to have a much greater bearing on performance.


I looked at the transfer fees paid for players on our list, subsequent to them scoring 20+ goals in League One. Ten of them were sold for fees in excess of £1m following their success in the third tier. Three of these – Assamobalonga, Wilson and Baldock - are last season's qualifiers, so too early to assess their impact. Of the rest, Rhodes (£8m), Hooper (£2.4m), Holt (£2m) and Lambert (£1m) all scored 20+ goals again at Championship, SPL or Premier League Level. Fryatt and Mackail-Smith managed between 10-20 goals in the higher echelons and, of the £1m+ men, only Simon Cox failed to score at least 10 goals in a season.


Conversely, not one of the five players sold on for less than £1m managed to make the same impact at a higher level. Indeed four of those failed to manage double figures in league goals in a single season when upped in class.


So while it's possible to pay budget prices for a striker to get out of League One, it appears that money talks in the goal stakes in the higher leagues.


I looked for further clues to lead us to potential candidates for our 20+ striker, and goal record in the season prior to a 20 goal haul seemed an obvious place to start. Several in our list were in the early stages of breaking into the first team, so instead of using total goals scored I used the ratio of goals per games. This wasn't as conclusive as I'd hoped but at least gives us some pointers.


Sixteen (84%) of the nineteen (I couldn't find the data for Beavon) in our list managed a goals per games ratio of 20%. Nothing overly impressive about one goal in five, we may agree, but even at this benchmark we'd be dismissing Wilson (9%) and Fryatt (7%). Digging deeper it becomes apparent that it was Wilson's first season of significant first-team action and Fryatt was plying his trade at Championship level, having already proven himself in League One.


If we up the ante significantly and look for those strikers who had struck at a ratio of one goal in three or better before their breakthrough season, we reduce the qualifiers to nine from nineteen (47%). A word of caution here, because in doing so we dismiss, amongst other lesser mortals, Messrs Evans (26% in the Championship), Mackail-Smith (23%) and Lambert (28%).


The top five performers in our 'season before 20+ goals in League One' list are Hooper (58%; League Two), Morison (54%; Conference), Holt (47%; League One), Barnard (46%; League One) and Rhodes (43%; League One). You may note that three (60%) of these went on to score 20+ goals at a higher level.


Focusing our attention on the top goals-per-games performers of players in the early stages of their professional career may lead us to some useful conclusions but, as my analysis shows, deciding where to set the benchmark is far from straightforward.


In terms of finding players capable of continuing to score prolifically at a higher level, the market value of a player is relevant. The difficulty with this factor is we don't know the ultimate market value for most of the list until after they've made the grade at League One level, because the great majority have been recruited at a young age from a lower league club.


There are two exceptions to this rule; players who have been recruited for £1m or more from a club playing at a higher level than League One prior to their 20+ goal season. One is Britt Assombalonga, recruited by Peterborough from Watford for a fee of £1.1m. The other is Ched Evans, recruited by The Blades from Man City for £3m. Statistically Assombalonga and Evans, based on their market value, are more likely to perform well at a higher level than League One, than those valued at less than £1m.


If we focus on the select band of players who, in the course of scoring 20+ goals in a League One season, scored at a ratio of 0.66 goals or above per game, we're left with Rhodes, Beckford, Evans and Lambert. Rhodes and Lambert both went on to score prolifically at a higher level. Beckford didn't but made the somewhat unusual step of moving straight from League One to the Premier League and has struggled ever since.


Finally, if we concentrate on players who have achieved a market value of £1m+ and scored 20+ goals at a ratio of 0.66 goals per game we're left with one player, Ched Evans (£3m; 0.8 gpg).


Those that argue Evans won't be the same player having spent 30 months behind bars may wish to consider other precedents:


Marlon King served nine months in prison in 2009; upon his release he scored 12 goals in 28 games (0.43 gpg) in the Championship.


Lee Hughes served three years in prison between 2004-2007. Upon his release he scored 25 goals in 55 games (0.45 gpg) for Oldham in League One.


In summary, if we apply a statistical approach to identifying the striker equivalent of a winning racehorse, we're looking for a 22 year-old playing in the lower leagues and scoring at a ratio of at least one goal in every five games (possibly less if playing at a higher level and/or in his breakthrough season as a professional).


But if we want to find the equivalent of a Champion Hurdle winner, we're looking, additionally, for a player with an established market value of £1m+ and a proven capability of scoring at 0.66 goals per game or more in League One. Such players are extremely rare and consequently extremely valuable.



UTB.
 

Excellent analysis B.

Although, I am beginning to think we should get Brayford and Maguire back.

- Maguire could be available for a season loan, he hasn't figured for Hull, and now they have Dawson he must be down the pecking order.
- Cardiff will have a new manager soon and who knows what will happen there.

A certain you know who may also turn up.

HH
 
Great analysis. I think the factor missing is Scouting. We should be looking at strikers in League 1, 2 non-league, other leagues who score frequently and then assessing whether they are likely to progress in L1 and higher.

I've been dubious about our scouting network for a long time.
 
NC used to be a decent striker himself so why the purchase of HIgdon, re signing of Porter and the non pursuit of the sharp goal scorers we've all listed over the months ?

No backing or eggs all in one basket a la O.P. ?
 
Hasn't the washing machine got 20+ as well?
 
NC used to be a decent striker himself so why the purchase of HIgdon, re signing of Porter and the non pursuit of the sharp goal scorers we've all listed over the months ?

No backing or eggs all in one basket a la O.P. ?

Sorry for jumping in, been having a look to see how the ex Motherwell boys have been doing and came across this post. I was a little surprised to see Higdon signing for yourselves with Chris Porter there already. I think both players are fairly similar.

We couldn't see why McCall had signed Higdon from St Mirren as he seemed slow and didn't seem to be able to fill the role that John Sutton had left. Our fans started getting on his back and he seemed to go in the huff. However being football fans we expected instant performances and results, after all he was replacing a guy that was scoring goals for us prior to moving to Hearts. By the time Higgy left us he was he loved by the fans and was scoring for fun.

The secret is to give him the ball where he can use it best, get the support in and around him and others will score as well. Just give him a little time to settle and he'll come good for you but he'll need game time to do that.

Murphy was always a little inconsistent but when he finds form he can be devastating. If he could turn it all the time, he'd have been playing at a higher level than us and no offence but yourselves as well. However because of that inconsistency he isn't, maybe he'll grow out of it but enjoy it when he is in form. Those cuts inside from the left wing and the shots from the edge of the box were always a joy to watch. Think Murphy is probably a confidence payer to be honest but we found him a grafter as well.
 
I normally just chat to the lads at the stables to see which horses they're running in the wrong races/distances to lengthen their odd's, and are then going be run in the right races/distances for a bit and clear up at the bookies ( for a short while)

It's an oldie-but-goodie and as long as no one is 'too greedy', seems to be accepted!
 

A fantastic analysis but for one thing, there is always an X factor with strikers, plus like higden game time, I have a mate in holland tells me the same as the Motherwell guy, higden seems to be slow to settle but once settled and given game time should rip league one apart provided we give him support.
Mcnutty is young and even at such an early stage has a fantastic first touch, given a little time I believe he will become a prolific striker.
A lot has been said about the transfer policy or lack thereof, we all know I think that any manager after considering scout reports, recommendations from other players and other sources will hand his targets to MD's or whoever, these lists will have primary, secondary, tertiary targets and it seems that like most fans below top 6 in the prem who can just throw however much money as needed, for various reasons top targets may not be feasible the same applies to lower targets, for example brayford may have liked to come back but Cardiff weren't letting him go, coady decided he wanted higher league football, no one can blame him or Cardiff.
The same applies to Harry, prem football, chance of European football, tho non of either so far but his wage will have increased several times, so to blame the manager and board for things stopping transfers beyond their control is ludicrous , time must be allowed not just expect things to fall into place.
UTB
 
Good OP and analysis.

I'm still in the camp that believes we do need a prolific 20 plus striker and we should use the current loan window to try and encourage someone in.

However, if I was sitting on the SUFC board and received this report, I would be asking further questions and asking for more analysis.

Firstly, we currently have 2 players who are on target to score 20 plus league goals - one according to our own website is a striker (Baxter 3 goals in 6 games) and one a midfielder Davies (4 in 8). I know it is early days and I certainly wouldn't back either to get 20 but to use a well-known club phrase - they may already be at the club :D.

I would also want to know what the profile looks like of the 7 clubs in the last 5 seasons that did get promotion but didn't have a 20 goal a season striker.

For example, I would be very happy to have 4 players get 15 goals each.

The big issue is goals scored by the whole side. It hasn't been good enough over the last 20 months (the rot set in after Wilson's last January transfer window 2013). The end of February 2013 to be precise - we finished 2012/13 season with 8 goals in 13 games. Last season we scored 48 in 46 and so far this season (with this week's spurt) we have 11 from 8. You could argue we are improving in this department but 67 goals in our last 67 league games is very poor despite finishing 5th and 7th.

It's also a bit ironic we are discussing this in a week where we've just scored 5 goals in 2 away games. The problem is clearly wider than just a striker and the board has to decide how much money is set aside to plug defensive gaps and add striking options.

Clough's post match interview to me said he wants the Board to help with players in but it also had an undercurrent of I've lost patience and I want players out.

Having already made so many changes, I just hope further changes are positive.

Not at any point have I felt we are a top two side but the top 6 definitely isn't outside our reach yet.

Our current rate says we'll score 63 goals - we need to be getting 75 - 85. Another way of asking the question would be where are the extra 20 goals coming from (an extra goal every 2 games). The answer is we need Higdon and Murphy to start scoring or we need someone else in.
 
The problem with NH racing at the moment is the concentration of all the best talent in just a few stables: Henderson and Nicholls this side of the water and Mullins in Ireland. What they all have in common are big-spending, wealthy owners. Mulliins in particular has the financial backing of Rich Ricci, the immensely rich Yank who made his money at Barclays in the Bob Diamond era. As a result, Bohemian's analysis of the Champion Hurdle is difficult to carry out in advance because there is so much confusion over just which horses Mullins will run in the race. Will Faugheen and/or Vatour go over fences? Will Annie Power? What about Un De Sceaux? Is Hurricane Fly a light of other days? Could Diakali make the step up from handicaps?

Whatever the answer to these questions it's clear that in racing, as in football and life generally, money talks. United have wealthy owners but, unlike Ricci, they're not big-spending. The analysis is very interesting from Bohemian but it's largely of academic interest if there is in fact no prospect of anyone putting their hands in their pockets. We're not going to pay big money for anyone and there's no sign of a 20-goal striker coming through the ranks so all our eggs are in the Ched Evans basket and, truth be told, I think that's been the club's "strategy" all along.

Personally, I think My Tent Or Yours will win next year's Champion Hurdle provided they can get him to settle better in his races.
 
So we have to rely on the loan window to unearth a gem.

Analysis = we're fucked then
 
Conversely, not one of the five players sold on for less than £1m managed to make the same impact at a higher level.

I think it's naïve to decide against signing a striker based on the parameters we're working under more often than not leading to that striker not cutting it in the division above. Get someone in who can do it in this dreadful league and then if we do somehow get promoted, cross that bridge when we come to it.
 
This player meets all Bohemians requirements, 90 games 42 goals....
 
This player meets all Bohemians requirements, 90 games 42 goals....


Interesting contender, and coming from Non-league is not necessarily an impediment as Mackail-Smith, Beavon and Morison proved.

The added difficulty in spotting a contender, apparent from my research, was germination period: only six of the twenty strikers identified scored 20+ goals in the season immediadtely after being signed. All others, who didn't develop through a club's own Academy, hit the jackpot in the second or third season after their transfer. Hence the difficulty for The Blades in trying to identify a 20+ goal striker this season.

Failing that we need to hope that one of our existing players - perhaps Baxter or McNulty - can make the breakthrough. Even if we believe Higdon can get better and start to score regularly, the age stat is very much against him scoring 20+ goals (the oldest in the past 5 years was Grant Holt who was 29 at the time).
 
Bohemian excellent research and interesting reading

Then you see Billy Paynter on the list and wonder has he gone bad or did not suit our tactics, which then in turn makes you wonder if our tactics don't suit Higdon

Sharp, Brittain, Dyer, and add any others over the years who didn't play well for us and then made it elsewhere
 
Sorry for jumping in, been having a look to see how the ex Motherwell boys have been doing and came across this post. I was a little surprised to see Higdon signing for yourselves with Chris Porter there already. I think both players are fairly similar.

We couldn't see why McCall had signed Higdon from St Mirren as he seemed slow and didn't seem to be able to fill the role that John Sutton had left. Our fans started getting on his back and he seemed to go in the huff. However being football fans we expected instant performances and results, after all he was replacing a guy that was scoring goals for us prior to moving to Hearts. By the time Higgy left us he was he loved by the fans and was scoring for fun.

The secret is to give him the ball where he can use it best, get the support in and around him and others will score as well. Just give him a little time to settle and he'll come good for you but he'll need game time to do that.

Murphy was always a little inconsistent but when he finds form he can be devastating. If he could turn it all the time, he'd have been playing at a higher level than us and no offence but yourselves as well. However because of that inconsistency he isn't, maybe he'll grow out of it but enjoy it when he is in form. Those cuts inside from the left wing and the shots from the edge of the box were always a joy to watch. Think Murphy is probably a confidence payer to be honest but we found him a grafter as well.




Thanks ever so much Welly.

Yes it's apparent Murphy is a confidence player and I guess he spends his life self doubting. He's introverted on the pitch and looks like a startled rabbit in media interviews. I hope Clough can help him to think positively. Brian Clough made a career of helping average players achieve miracles. Actually I have wondered whether Murphy welcomed Higdon's arrival as they seem like completely different characters.

What you say about Hgdon had dawned on me but that makes the signing all the harder to fathom. Our squad and performance lends itself to a fluid and mobile style of football and the signing of Higdon appeared to challenge that whole approach. When we've played him we have hardly altered our style and he has looked woeful. At present he looks only a "Plan B" for the last 20 minutes if needed and Clough didn't use him last Saturday when needed. A real conundrum and so critical to our prospects.

While you're around Welly, how much did you see/ know about McNulty? He looks ordinary but is settling in better now.
 
Bohemian excellent research and interesting reading

Then you see Billy Paynter on the list and wonder has he gone bad or did not suit our tactics, which then in turn makes you wonder if our tactics don't suit Higdon

Sharp, Brittain, Dyer, and add any others over the years who didn't play well for us and then made it elsewhere

De Laet is now a regular starter for Leicester. It wold be harsh to judge his time here though given the context of turmoil.
 
One that got away:

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/...ls-in-a-true-rags-to-riches-tale-9749789.html

Bohemian, it looks like My Tent Or Yours is staying over hurdles this season. There had been talk of him going novice chasing. Fancy him for the CH?

Hmm tough one at this early stage. MTOY is a fine beast and if the Champion Hurdle was run at Kempton would be a shoe-in. Given it isn't (and hopefully never will be) I'd always expect something to get up the hill slightly better than him.

My ante post money was on The New One last time and I still believe he would have won had he not been brought to a virtual standstill when Our Conor hit the deck, so he'll remain on my shortlist.

Most Champion Hurdles are run at a furious pace so we're usually looking for a horse with the stamina to win at 2m4f - especially if there's juice in the ground. Jezki fitted this profile last year but doesn't strike me as having the class to be a dual CH hurdle winner, so the one that stands out to me with the potential to develop into a superstar is Faugheen. He won the Neptune at The Festival as he liked, so proved he can stay longer than the mother-in-law and the village priest combined. Sadly he's not an exciting price - but Champion Hurdlers rarely are.

In terms of stand-out ante-post value, at present, I'm having a few quid on Western Warhorse (33/1) and Champagne Fever (20/1) in the Champion Chase. They were 1st and 2nd in The Arkle and horses that run well in the Arkle have a great record in the following season's Champion Chase.

Good luck!
 
McNulty reminds me of Evans when he first arrived at BDTBL, lookng good without looking great, his goal against Swindon was text book Evans as well, turning in front of goal while holding two players off, he could blossom into a good striker.

Thanks ever so much Welly.

Yes it's apparent Murphy is a confidence player and I guess he spends his life self doubting. He's introverted on the pitch and looks like a startled rabbit in media interviews. I hope Clough can help him to think positively. Brian Clough made a career of helping average players achieve miracles. Actually I have wondered whether Murphy welcomed Higdon's arrival as they seem like completely different characters.

What you say about Hgdon had dawned on me but that makes the signing all the harder to fathom. Our squad and performance lends itself to a fluid and mobile style of football and the signing of Higdon appeared to challenge that whole approach. When we've played him we have hardly altered our style and he has looked woeful. At present he looks only a "Plan B" for the last 20 minutes if needed and Clough didn't use him last Saturday when needed. A real conundrum and so critical to our prospects.

While you're around Welly, how much did you see/ know about McNulty? He looks ordinary but is settling in better now.
 

McNulty reminds me of Evans when he first arrived at BDTBL, lookng good without looking great, his goal against Swindon was text book Evans as well, turning in front of goal while holding two players off, he could blossom into a good striker.
Agree,the way he rolls his foot over the ball and finishes it shows he has the nous to be a good striker if given a run of games.
 

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