Points Required For Survival

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Sheffsteel said:
Are you for real? Assume you’re in the wind up or as you say slow day in the office ha ?
It reminds me of the scenario after we beat Ipswich last season.
There were actually people saying if we lose 8-0 to Stoke and Leeds their last match 5-0.....then they pinch the last spot.
Think they were being serious too.....worried we might not be promoted.
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and it’s always that way round isn’t it? Never about what we need to succeed, but always about what we need to avoid failure.

It’s the Sheffield way unfortunately and it’s incurable. Is there a more pessimistic set of people in the whole of the UK?

“Summat bad might ‘appen” strikes again!

btw - not taking anything away from the excellent analysis that has been done, but try doing it again based on our chances of reaching Europe maybe? Just try to be a bit cheerful and positive maybe? 🤔
 
Punk Blade said:
There has been some debate recently around the difference between being mathematically safe (can no longer finish in the bottom three regardless of remaining results) and being effectively safe (we have more points now than the 18th placed team will have in the final table). This led to a few posters asking what are the actual required points for survival based on the current league table. I had a go at answering this, but thought it may be of interest to have a separate thread and track the movement as the run-in unfolds.

The approach is to allow for the two teams with the lowest possible points total (currently Norwich and Watford) and any teams already safe (Liverpool) to lose to everyone else, and have most of the games between the other teams finish with a winner, to maximise the points pool for those teams. After filling out the remaining results it was possible to move the lowest points totals up slightly by factoring in a few draws.

At this stage, 2nd to 18th (and who they are in my table is irrelevant as they could just about be anyone) can be separated by just three points, from 58 in 2nd down to 12 teams on 55 points. It may be possible to have more teams on 56-58 and fewer on 55, but there aren't enough points left in the 56-58 bracket to redistribute to the group on 55 to bring 18th up to 56, so as of right now, 56 points is the golden number to be guaranteed Premier League football next season and only Liverpool have passed this mark already.

To keep our destiny entirely in our own hands, we need 17 points from the remaining 36 on offer, which works out at 1.42 points per game, slightly lower than our current PPG over the season to date of 1.5. Here's the full table:

View attachment 71281
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You've made a big mistake here. You cant have the whole league except the bottom 3 on more than 56 points.
 
BladeByChoice said:
The first important point is, it’s a moving target, at start of the season every team is 63 points from safety
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64 points actually. The bottom two teams get points off each other but lose the rest of their games. The top 18 teams win all their home games (19 home games x 3 points = 57) and the only away wins they get are against the bottom two (6 points)
 
Silent Blade said:
64 points actually. The bottom two teams get points off each other but lose the rest of their games. The top 18 teams win all their home games (19 home games x 3 points = 57) and the only away wins they get are against the bottom two (6 points)
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I got this:

Two teams lose all their games except when the play each other (both teams winning at home) so end the season with 3 points each. The remaining 18 teams win all their home games and lose all their away games except when playing the 2 teams that lose all their games, which they win. This leaves the 18 teams on 63 points with the team with the worst goal difference being relegated.

Are we saying the same thing here, the difference being you are saying 64 points and I am saying 63 and a better GD.
 
BladeByChoice said:
I got this:

Two teams lose all their games except when the play each other (both teams winning at home) so end the season with 3 points each. The remaining 18 teams win all their home games and lose all their away games except when playing the 2 teams that lose all their games, which they win. This leaves the 18 teams on 63 points with the team with the worst goal difference being relegated.

Are we saying the same thing here, the difference being you are saying 64 points and I am saying 63 and a better GD.
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Yes, you still can go down with 63 points due to having the worst GD of the top 18 teams, that is why I say 64.

A team can be PL champions with only 38 points if all matches ended in draws!
 
I didn’t work this one out for myself, its from one of the Stack Exchange sites, but does anyone disagree with this number.

The least number of points a team can acquire and not be relegated is 6.

Four teams lose all their games except when they play each other, which they draw. So these four teams have 6 points each. The three with the worst goal difference are relegated and the team with the best goal difference stays up.
 
BladeByChoice said:
I got this:

Two teams lose all their games except when the play each other (both teams winning at home) so end the season with 3 points each. The remaining 18 teams win all their home games and lose all their away games except when playing the 2 teams that lose all their games, which they win. This leaves the 18 teams on 63 points with the team with the worst goal difference being relegated.

Are we saying the same thing here, the difference being you are saying 64 points and I am saying 63 and a better GD.
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What would happen if every win was a 1-0?
 
Punk Blade said:
So what is the mistake?
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I dont know, but for example for so many teams to get to 56 seems impossible. In your table it needs everybody up to 7th to average over 1.5 pts per game. Mathmatically impossible surely?
 
GRUMPY BLADE said:
What would happen if every win was a 1-0?
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That’s a very good question;

I’ve just checked the premier league site and it says;

"If any clubs finish with the same number of points, their position in the Premier League table is determined by goal difference, then the number of goals scored. If the teams still cannot be separated, they will be awarded the same position in the table."

So I suppose, either they are all =18th and go down or all =1st and stay up.

Imagine if that ever happened.
 
Greasy Chap Butty said:
I dont know, but for example for so many teams to get to 56 seems impossible. In your table it needs everybody up to 7th to average over 1.5 pts per game. Mathmatically impossible surely?
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They can’t all get to 56 so the PPG added up wouldn’t tally. Most teams would be on 55. The bottom two would be cut adrift losing to everyone but each other. The calculated league table was in this post.
 

See the source image
 
Punk Blade said:
They can’t all get to 56 so the PPG added up wouldn’t tally. Most teams would be on 55. The bottom two would be cut adrift losing to everyone but each other. The calculated league table was in this post.
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Fair enough, I'll study it in more detail when at the pc.
How does what youve done tally with BladeByChoice ?
There's a big points difference at the bottom.
Btw I think we are coming from it from the same angle i.e we are safe, let's do some nerdy stuff....
 
Even if you turned the form table upside down for the remaining 12 games we would not go down. It would take one of the bottom three teams winning every game for a start that just isn't going to happen, there is more chance of me winning the lottery. Just off to buy a lottery ticket should I just get the normal one or one for the Euro millions?
🤔 :)
 
blade67 said:
I'm not sure anyone really thinks we aren't safe.

The OP is responding to the question posed by some on other threads about mathematical certainty. This must be really difficult to work out and a bit pointless, but it seems he's not the only one, as 2 or 3 have come to the same number of around 56 points - this week. It will have changed by next week.

Obviously, it won't need 56 points as the shit teams at the bottom will keep getting 1 point a game on average.

I'm interested to see when it actually becomes impossible
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It’s pointless from a practical perspective but it seems we’ve got quite a few fans of maths on here. Applying theories to real life situations makes it more ‘interesting’. It’s a bit complicated for me but I don’t mind being a spectator.
 
BushBlade said:
It’s pointless from a practical perspective but it seems we’ve got quite a few fans of maths on here. Applying theories to real life situations makes it more ‘interesting’. It’s a bit complicated for me but I don’t mind being a spectator.
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At last someone who gets it.

Its an exercise in futility by those of us who like doing sums in our spare time.

I’ve been posting about us being safe since boxing day, even started a thread after the Palace game, always shot down by the ‘not mathematically safe’ contingent of our fan base.(not criticising by the way) Now we have an entire thread just for them and they are conspicuous by their absence.
 
blade67 said:
Has this changed over the weekend?

Don't be put off by the haters. What are message boards for, if not to post pointless shit
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No, I updated with the weekend’s results but I can still get 3rd bottom on 55 points. I was going to wait until there was movement before posting an update!
 
BladeByChoice said:
I got this:

Two teams lose all their games except when the play each other (both teams winning at home) so end the season with 3 points each. The remaining 18 teams win all their home games and lose all their away games except when playing the 2 teams that lose all their games, which they win. This leaves the 18 teams on 63 points with the team with the worst goal difference being relegated.

Are we saying the same thing here, the difference being you are saying 64 points and I am saying 63 and a better GD.
Click to expand...
Wilf's in the zone .....in the corner !
 
Sheffsteel said:
Are you for real? Assume you’re in the wind up or as you say slow day in the office ha ?
It reminds me of the scenario after we beat Ipswich last season.
There were actually people saying if we lose 8-0 to Stoke and Leeds their last match 5-0.....then they pinch the last spot.
Think they were being serious too.....worried we might not be promoted.
Click to expand...

I think it's not really about being a set of miserable pessimists, in most cases it's just about superstition. This struck me as I'm in the middle of reading a book about RAF bombers in WW2 and if anyone said "ooh that went ok" after a successful bombing mission over Germany they'd get pounced on by the others - it was just seen as unlucky to talk like that until the job was fully done and they had landed back on home soil.

Walking down Shoreham Street after that Ipswich game was a bit weird. We all knew we were up but the atmosphere was definitely a bit muted, a few car horns tooted but we knew we weren't totally over the line. Then the next day when Leeds fucked up we knew we had well and truly landed. I think that is just the English way (apart from the Pigs).
 

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